Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether the United States will publicly and officially announce a naval blockade involving Iran, Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks live market pricing and smart money activity, including $15,149 in tracked smart money and recent geopolitics-related trader signals.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,686.
Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
4-wallet geopolitical surge
Four-wallet one-sided Yes cluster drove a 998x volume spike and 31-point price jump, with a 93% winning wallet adding to an existing position, though the current 98¢ price is too high to chase.
- Four wallets bought $15.1k of Yes in about 30 seconds, and the market jumped to 98¢.
- The lead wallet wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $72k lifetime, while adding to an existing Yes position.
- Volume was nearly 1,000x normal on a serious geopolitical market, suggesting fast-moving news conviction.
$15,149 on Yes
80% win-rate geopolitics bettor
Proven profitable wallet with 80% win rate and extensive cross-market history is buying Yes again on a geopolitics market, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $824k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 202 markets across 75 events and $3.9M traded.
- Buying Yes near 40¢ suggests renewed conviction after prior related positioning.
$1,051 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp cross-market No bettor
Sharp 89% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical position, buying No on a thin Iran blockade market after recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $6.5K lifetime.
- They have $7.1K positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 69¢ goes against today’s Yes move, implying confidence that blockade odds are overstated.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate is adding to a Yes position at 35¢ on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
- They have traded across 28 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position at 35¢, bringing total exposure near $3.9K.
$1,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp cross-market No bettor
Sharp 89% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical position, buying No on a thin Iran blockade market after recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $6.5K lifetime.
- They have $7.1K positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 69¢ goes against today’s Yes move, implying confidence that blockade odds are overstated.
$1,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x9868...64b0 — Outcome 60796188, $14,525 (90% win rate)
- 0x138f...657e — Outcome 60796188, $9,421 (67% win rate)
- 0x8f71...4e83 — Outcome 60796188, $8,701 (100% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 60796188, $5,195
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 60796188, $4,718 (59% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 60796188, $4,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xfb59...83f9 — Outcome 60796188, $2,976 (55% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 60796188, $2,805 (80% win rate)
- 0xc91b...93bd — Outcome 60796188, $2,303
- 0xb51b...b4d9 — Outcome 60796188, $2,097 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Covers 4 related markets
