Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,246.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

41-0 wallet flips bullish

A very strong 41-0 profitable wallet sold No, effectively taking the Yes side, with price impact and cross-market activity despite prior No exposure.

  • This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved bets and is up about $211K lifetime.
  • They sold $7.2K of No, which is effectively a Yes bet at 18¢.
  • The trade moved against their prior No exposure, suggesting a deliberate change in view rather than a routine add.

$7,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 20475881, $7,205 (81% win rate)
  2. 0xa10b...8ec6 Outcome 20475881, $2,075 (67% win rate)
  3. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 20475881, $1,462 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x12d6...f2a8 Outcome 20475881, $1,182 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x89a9...b8b0 Outcome 20475881, $1,000
  6. 0x6dce...4490 Outcome 20475881, $962 (19% win rate)
  7. 0x9612...205a Outcome 20475881, $938
  8. 0xf6c7...8366 Outcome 20475881, $919
  9. 0xd426...334a Outcome 20475881, $800 (42% win rate)
  10. 0x9690...f2d5 Outcome 20475881, $751 (47% win rate)

Related Theses

US-Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 9 related markets

Hormuz blockade lifted in June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran uranium surrender in May

Covers 3 related markets

Hormuz sees heavy ship traffic

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closes airspace in May

Covers 3 related markets

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$7,246 tracked1 signalEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

12d ago

$7,246 on Yes at 18¢

Related Theses