Part of: Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
37 smart money signals detected, totaling $249,000.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Middle East, Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 1,051 resolved bets and $304k profit is adding a sizable No position in this event at 87¢, making it a credible follow despite the alert being driven mainly by cross-market patterning.
- This bettor has 1,051 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up about $304k lifetime
- They have traded 392 markets across 276 events, which points to a repeatable event-trading process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 87¢ while No trades around 86%, backing the view that lifting the blockade by April 30 is still unlikely
$2,171 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
85% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader is reopening a fresh position here after previously closing out both sides, and their broad cross-market event positioning makes this a thesis-driven trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $421k lifetime.
- They trade connected markets well: 35 events and 84 related markets with the same 85% hit rate.
- This is a fresh Yes entry at 16¢ after earlier positions were closed, showing a renewed event view rather than routine profit-taking.
$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
93% win-rate macro bettor
A highly successful serial event trader with a 93% win rate bought No at 87¢ in this geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal firing.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $111k across 865 settled bets.
- They trade heavily across related events — 338 markets in 221 events with $701k deployed.
- Buying No at 87¢ suggests they view a blockade lift by April 30 as unlikely even after recent price movement.
$2,659 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
92% winner re-entering Yes
A proven sharp wallet with a 92% win rate opened a fresh Yes position at 19¢ after previously closing out, suggesting renewed conviction at a much cheaper price.
- This bettor wins 92% of their trades across 815 resolved markets and is up $35.6k.
- They opened a fresh Yes position at 19¢ after previously closing out, showing renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Buying at 19¢ means they see the lift-blockade outcome as meaningfully underpriced versus the market.
$1,499 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
New whale buying longshots
A 2-hour-old wallet has already made seven large flagged bets and just bought $3,000 of a 13% outcome, suggesting a fresh high-conviction account worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.
- This wallet is only about 2 hours old but has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts totaling $26.7k
- They bought Yes at 13¢, a low-probability bet that could pay roughly 7.7x if their thesis is right
- This is a fresh position in a major geopolitical market, not routine profit-taking
$3,000 on Yes
92% winner buying Yes
A very high-skill wallet with a 92% win rate is opening a fresh low-priced Yes position at 11¢ on a major geopolitical market after previously closing another position, making this a notable conviction bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 92% of their trades across 815 resolved markets and is up $35.6k lifetime
- They just opened a fresh Yes position at 11¢, a price that implies a high-payoff contrarian view
- The market is large and active, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a random punt
$1,586 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
87% winner buying Yes
A high-win-rate wallet is making a sizable cross-market event bet by selling No here, effectively buying Yes around 12-13¢, which fits a broader profitable thesis across five related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $15.7k lifetime
- They bet $12.4k here and $42.5k across 5 related markets in the same event
- Selling No at 87-88¢ is effectively buying Yes around 12-13¢ after a sharp 1-week drop
$12,351 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 972 resolved bets and $346k profit is making a sizable same-event bet on No at 88¢ in a major geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 972 resolved bets and is up $346k overall
- They trade across related markets at scale, with 262 events and $2.18M tracked volume
- Buying No at 88¢ in a live geopolitics market suggests they see the blockade staying in place despite a sharp 1-week price swing
$3,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
87% winner event thesis
A high-hit-rate wallet is expressing a coordinated event thesis across five related markets, and these trades net out to buying Yes around 16-18¢ despite the market still pricing it near 12%.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is betting across 5 related markets in the same event.
- These sells of No convert to buying Yes around 14-22¢, showing a clear view that the market is underrating a lift of the blockade.
- The wallet put about $40.7k through this market while the price had already fallen sharply over the week, suggesting conviction into weakness.
$40,684 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable new whale betting NO
A 2-day-old wallet with nearly $94k in recent flagged bets, early profits, and a perfect 5-for-5 record is making another high-confidence bet on a major geopolitical market.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made about $94k in flagged bets and is up nearly $9.9k
- It has won all 5 of its resolved markets so far, mostly by buying heavy favorites around 93¢
- This trade adds another high-conviction NO position at 89¢ in a liquid geopolitics market
$2,298 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x766e...21cd — Outcome 52362237, $54,200
- 0x25db...28de — Outcome 52362237, $39,282 (53% win rate)
- 0x7494...680d — Outcome 52362237, $29,609 (92% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 52362237, $28,846 (84% win rate)
- 0x030a...acfc — Outcome 52362237, $28,069 (57% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 52362237, $26,817
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 52362237, $19,089 (70% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 52362237, $13,900 (69% win rate)
- 0x5835...9404 — Outcome 52362237, $13,633
- 0x415f...3033 — Outcome 11220086, $13,028
