Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,642.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial 97% winner adds to No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 97% historical win rate is adding to a substantial No position amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 97% of 5,249 resolved trades across 206 events.
- The trader is adding $2,700 to No after already investing $3,000, while four event markets attracted $122,454 from this wallet.
- Market activity is running 53.7x above its historical average, and No is available around 90¢.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable 94% wallet is adding to a No position within a 19-wallet funded cluster and has a strong cross-market record.
- This bettor has won 249 of 264 resolved trades, with $186,649 in lifetime profit.
- The wallet is adding to an existing $4,352 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $8,234 on the same activity.
- The trader has positioned across six markets in this event and maintains a 94% win rate across 54 events.
$2,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable 94% wallet is adding to a No position within a 19-wallet funded cluster and has a strong cross-market record.
- This bettor has won 249 of 264 resolved trades, with $186,649 in lifetime profit.
- The wallet is adding to an existing $4,352 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $8,234 on the same activity.
- The trader has positioned across six markets in this event and maintains a 94% win rate across 54 events.
$2,746 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable 94% wallet is adding to a No position within a 19-wallet funded cluster and has a strong cross-market record.
- This bettor has won 249 of 264 resolved trades, with $186,649 in lifetime profit.
- The wallet is adding to an existing $4,352 No position while 19 linked wallets have deployed $8,234 on the same activity.
- The trader has positioned across six markets in this event and maintains a 94% win rate across 54 events.
$1,084 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable, 94% win-rate trader is adding substantial capital to No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster on a relatively thin market.
- This bettor has won 249 of 264 trades, with $184,919 in lifetime profit and a 69% average winning entry price.
- They added about $4,087 to No while already holding $2,600, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 9.
- Nineteen wallets sharing a funder have collectively increased exposure, while this position represents roughly 68% of recent market volume.
$4,087 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $177,723 (87% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $35,452 (73% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $20,001 (46% win rate)
- 0x8d7a...276f — Yes, $9,498 (14% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Yes, $4,484 (82% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $4,003 (66% win rate)
- 0xd75a...fdec — Yes, $3,975 (62% win rate)
- 0x6ffa...b3c4 — Yes, $2,952
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $2,859 (76% win rate)
- 0xfb59...83f9 — Yes, $2,546 (61% win rate)
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