Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if Iran makes an official pledge, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter is tracking $2,500 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent YES buying from a high-performing trader.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,969.

Categories: Trump, Nuclear, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp 80% winner buying YES

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 80% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and bought Yes despite only a modest low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $23.6K lifetime.
  • They put $2.5K on Yes, about 28% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • Entry at 55¢ suggests they see upside from a market currently near even odds.

$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial event trader

A proven high-volume cross-market bettor with nearly $1M in profit bought Yes at 44¢ in a geopolitical market that has already moved up to 48%, making this a worthwhile directional signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor has won 561 of 876 resolved trades and is up about $954k lifetime.
  • They trade across 40 markets in 29 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt.
  • Bought Yes at 44¢ and the market is already up to 48%, while 24h volume was only about $5k.

$2,469 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5739...5f1a No, $22,858 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x2fad...f5c0 Yes, $12,080 (41% win rate)
  3. 0xa94f...6d6f Yes, $8,238 (81% win rate)
  4. 0xb9f1...a6a0 Yes, $7,872 (42% win rate)
  5. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $7,776 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $5,321 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $4,800 (58% win rate)
  8. 0x2fea...3bde No, $3,795
  9. 0x6203...4fb8 No, $3,146
  10. 0xb8b4...1f6e No, $2,525 (46% win rate)

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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

221d Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$4,969 tracked2 signalsTrumpNuclearMiddle EastU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePoliticsGeopoliticsIran
Yes
49¢
No
52¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
53¢
49¢
45¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11d ago

$2,500 on Yes at 55¢

55¢49¢6¢

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

39d ago

$2,469 on Yes at 44¢

44¢49¢5¢

Related Theses