Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,066.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market contrarian

A highly profitable high-volume wallet is taking a contrarian No position within a broader cross-market event thesis amid a major volume spike and sharp odds move.

This high-volume bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across $74.6M wagered.
The wallet has traded 5 related markets in the same event, totaling about $45.7k.
They bought No at 10¢ after a major market move, and the same side is now cheaper around 4¢.

$1,108 on No | Wallet win rate: 48%

Profitable cross-market geopolitics trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is shifting out of No exposure while building a broader event thesis across 5 related markets, with Iran airspace Yes already moving sharply higher.

This bettor is up $71.7K lifetime across 242 resolved bets and has traded 25 related events.
They have $65.1K positioned across 5 markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
The market has already moved 16 points toward Yes in the last day, matching the direction implied by selling No.

$1,051 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes as part of a $66k event-wide thesis on a geopolitically plausible market.

This bettor has won 66% of 242 resolved trades and is up $72k lifetime.
They have traded 5 related markets in this event for $66k, suggesting a broader geopolitical thesis.
Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢, above the current 24¢ market price.

$2,189 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is repositioning across seven related Iran-airspace markets, though this specific trade may be a position close rather than a fresh standalone bet.

This bettor is up $338K lifetime across 849 resolved bets.
They have traded 57 markets across 28 related events, with $95K positioned across this event.
Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 23¢, above the current 20¢ market price.

$1,547 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

88% winner cross-market thesis

Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is extending a large cross-market Iran thesis by buying No at 83¢.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $23.9K lifetime.
They have placed $93K across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran event thesis.
Buying No at 83¢ means they are backing the airspace-closure risk staying contained before May 27.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 849 resolved bets is buying No as part of a broader 7-market event thesis.

This bettor has 849 resolved bets and is up about $339K lifetime.
They are active across 7 related markets with about $95K positioned in this event.
Buying No at 86¢ suggests confidence that an Iran airspace closure is unlikely by the deadline.

$1,899 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor

Experienced profitable wallet is expressing a $56k cross-market thesis on the Iran airspace event, buying No at 80¢ after Yes has already fallen sharply.

This bettor has 1,133 resolved trades and is up $319k lifetime.
They have put $56k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 80¢ follows a 10.5-point drop in Yes over the past day.

$3,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%

95% winner cross-market No

A highly profitable 95% win-rate wallet is extending a cross-market thesis across five related Iran airspace markets, buying No here at 80¢.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $299k lifetime.
They have put about $98k across 5 related markets in the same event, showing a consistent No-side thesis.
Buying No at 80¢ suggests confidence this market resolves against an Iranian airspace closure.

$1,254 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume wallet with a long cross-market track record is adding to a broader event thesis by buying No after Yes odds fell sharply.

This bettor has 847 resolved trades and is up $331K lifetime.
They are positioning across 7 related markets in this event with $96K total exposure.
Buying No at 76¢ lines up with the market move, after Yes dropped 16 points in the last day.

$2,511 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial geopolitics bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with a long profitable history is buying No on an Iran airspace closure, though the stake is modest and price has moved against the entry.

This bettor has traded 46 related-event markets and is up about $61K lifetime.
They win 64% of resolved bets across 526 outcomes, suggesting a real but not elite track record.
They bought No at 74¢ on an active geopolitical market, implying confidence Iran does not broadly close its airspace by the deadline.

$1,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%