Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $164,687.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
84% sharp flipped Yes
Sharp 84% lifetime bettor with strong cross-market history bought Yes before a major price move and alongside one-sided flow.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $433k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 42¢ before the market jumped to 83¢.
- Five wallets have bought the same side, with Yes up 48 percentage points recently.
$1,266 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved-bet record is making a broader six-market Iran event thesis and effectively backing Yes by selling No.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $213k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with nearly $197k total exposure, suggesting a broader Iran-event thesis.
- Selling No at 60¢ is equivalent to backing Yes around 40¢ while the market is near 37¢.
$2,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market trader is re-entering No while also deploying significant capital across related event markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $213K lifetime.
- They have traded 6 related markets in this event with about $201K total exposure.
- This is a fresh re-entry on No at 68¢ after previously closing a similar position.
$4,109 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is adding a $5.6k No bet as part of an $18.7k event-level thesis.
- This bettor has 775 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $149k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 26 events and 42 markets totaling about $1.8M.
- This looks like part of a broader event thesis, with $18.7k positioned across two related markets.
$5,634 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable whale flips Yes
Profitable high-volume wallet is reversing from a prior No position and building a cross-market Yes thesis across four related Iran markets.
- This wallet is up $1.18M lifetime across more than $74M traded.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with about $27.9K in exposure.
- After closing a larger No position, this trade is a fresh buy on Yes at 24¢.
$1,245 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%
91% winner cross-market
A highly profitable 91% win-rate wallet is adding a cross-market No position, making the bettor's track record the main signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $733k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events, with $1.69M in tracked activity.
- They have $35.8k positioned across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
75% winner buying No
A proven profitable wallet with a 75% record and heavy cross-market positioning bought No at 80¢, making this a copy-worthy sharp bettor signal.
- This bettor has won 75% of 353 resolved bets and is up $213K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $201K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 80¢ means they are betting Iran airspace closure is unlikely despite recent market volatility.
$4,058 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
88% winner cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% record and positive P&L is buying No as part of a broader six-market Iran-related thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $23,938 lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related markets with $73,161 total exposure.
- Buying No at 71¢ suggests confidence that the airspace closure risk is overpriced.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
86% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and +$168.7k lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this airspace-closure market via a Yes sell.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $168.7k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 71¢, fading the market’s 30% chance of a closure.
- This is part of a cross-market position in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven cross-market bettor
A proven cross-market trader with 70% wins and $252k profit is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitical event while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up $252,536 lifetime.
- They have traded 91 events and 173 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 69¢ is effectively buying Yes at 31¢ on Iran closing its airspace.
$4,903 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x0681...f713 — Outcome 11047450, $337,858 (42% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 11047450, $275,190 (69% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 11047450, $31,701 (72% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 11047450, $17,173 (79% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — Outcome 11047450, $16,871 (92% win rate)
- 0xa284...49ed — Outcome 11047450, $13,821
- 0x5c78...343a — Outcome 11047450, $13,000
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 11047450, $11,822 (82% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 11047450, $10,661 (87% win rate)
- 0x88ae...809a — Outcome 11047450, $10,233 (75% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz deadlines are mispriced
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal happens in May
Covers 3 related markets
