Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 8, covering broad suspensions or cancellations across all or most Israeli civilian airspace. PolySpotter is tracking $5,345 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing both Yes and No flow in a thin geopolitical market. The market is scheduled to resolve after the event window, with resolution listed for June 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $42,918.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

4-wallet Yes surge

Surface: four wallets bought $7.3k of Yes during a 15x volume spike with rapid upward price impact on a geopolitically plausible information-sensitive market.

  • Four wallets bought the same side, putting $7.3k into Yes in a short burst.
  • Market activity jumped 15x above normal and Yes moved up 12.5 percentage points in 5 minutes.
  • The cluster paid around 52¢ on average, while the market is now near 45¢.

$7,345 on Yes

$300K-profit cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet with an 80-bet history is buying No while also positioning across related markets, supported by a sharp short-term price move.

  • This bettor is up about $300K lifetime across 80 resolved bets.
  • They are betting a broader thesis across 3 related markets with $11.3K total exposure.
  • Buying No at 69¢ lines up with recent fast movement toward No in this market.

$1,315 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Six-wallet NO wave

Six wallets pushed the same No position during a large volume spike, with several experienced profitable traders contributing despite no standout sharp-wallet win-rate signal.

  • Six wallets bought the same side, totaling about $9.5k on No.
  • The move came with a 10x volume spike and pushed Yes down from around 40¢ to 31¢.
  • Several bettors have deep histories, including one up $45.6k across 627 resolved trades.

$9,466 on No

Profitable serial trader joins Yes flow

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader joined a 7-wallet Yes-side flow during a major volume spike on a geopolitics market, though the market has since moved against the entry.

  • This bettor has won 405 resolved markets and is up about $219k lifetime.
  • Seven wallets bought the same Yes side for about $15k during the scan window.
  • Volume spiked 32x, suggesting a sudden wave of attention on this airspace-closure market.

$1,669 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Sharp 9-wallet Yes cluster

High-conviction one-sided Yes cluster with 9 wallets, a 29.5x volume spike, and participation from a highly profitable bettor with an 82% record.

  • Nine wallets put $19.2K on Yes in a thin market with only $55.9K total volume.
  • One participant wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $570K lifetime.
  • The market saw a 29.5x volume spike, suggesting sudden coordinated conviction.

$19,169 on Yes

Profitable bettor moves thin market

A profitable high-volume wallet made a forceful Yes bet in a thin geopolitical market, moving price sharply and adding to a broader cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor is up about $67k lifetime across more than $2.25M traded.
  • The bet was large for this market, equal to about 80% of recent daily volume.
  • No fell 22 points in 4 minutes, and this wallet has about $9.8k across three related markets.

$1,111 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%

Profitable cross-market thesis

Moderately interesting geopolitical thesis: a profitable high-volume wallet has put $26k across related Israel airspace markets and added a large Yes bet in a thin, wide-spread market.

  • This wallet is up about $70k lifetime and has now placed $26k across 3 related markets.
  • The $2.8k Yes buy was over 2x the market’s recent 24h volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • The market is thin with a wide spread, so this bettor paid up to 67¢ for Yes despite current displayed odds near 56¢.

$2,843 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $12,566 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x1e1f...c855 No, $10,158 (57% win rate)
  3. 0x97cb...c910 Yes, $8,641 (22% win rate)
  4. 0xaf23...aa95 No, $8,584 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xa6b7...d5f3 Yes, $6,989 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $6,351 (92% win rate)
  7. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $5,833 (48% win rate)
  8. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $5,221 (62% win rate)
  9. 0xa252...dbf4 No, $5,203 (65% win rate)
  10. 0x8d4b...07cb Yes, $5,000 (44% win rate)

Related Theses

No Iran deal by June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran deal arrives mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran closes airspace imminently

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays through June

Covers 3 related markets

Closure happens immediately or never

Covers 3 related markets

Iran meeting timing arbitrage

Covers 7 related markets

Iran ceasefire will collapse

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Iran peace deadline arbitrage

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

6dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$42,918 tracked7 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
35¢
No
66¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
72¢
70¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

40m ago

$7,345 on Yes at 52¢

52¢35¢17¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

1h ago

$1,315 on No at 69¢

69¢66¢3¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

21m ago

$9,466 on No at 64¢

64¢66¢2¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

1h ago

$1,669 on Yes at 67¢

67¢35¢32¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

1h ago

$19,169 on Yes at 58¢

58¢35¢23¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

1h ago

$1,111 on Yes at 68¢

68¢35¢33¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

1h ago

$2,843 on Yes at 67¢

67¢35¢32¢

Related Theses