Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
26 smart money signals detected, totaling $148,781.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing No position while participating in a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 246 resolved trades and earned $163,110 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $1,505 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 15.
- It belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster, while the broader trader has positioned across four markets in this event.
$4,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing No position while participating in a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 246 resolved trades and earned $163,110 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $1,505 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 15.
- It belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster, while the broader trader has positioned across four markets in this event.
$6,052 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
92% winner adds to No
A profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position while taking a consistent view across two related markets.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved trades and is up $9,639 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,527 to an existing No position at 86¢, reinforcing their conviction.
- The wallet has positioned across two related markets with $13,646 committed to the same event thesis.
$2,871 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
92% winner adds to No
A profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to an existing No position while taking a consistent view across two related markets.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved trades and is up $9,639 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,527 to an existing No position at 86¢, reinforcing their conviction.
- The wallet has positioned across two related markets with $13,646 committed to the same event thesis.
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Serial sharp bettor buys No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 87% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $5,203 bet on No.
- This bettor wins 87% of 291 resolved trades and is up $232,124.
- The trader has made bets across 113 events while outperforming the odds by 26 percentage points.
- They bought No at 87¢, aligned with the market’s 88% No price but backed by a strong track record.
$5,203 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Serial cross-market No add
Serial cross-market trader with a positive long-run record is adding $3.6k to an existing No position on a geopolitical market with recent No momentum.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market bettor across 76 markets and is up $23k lifetime.
- They added $3.6k to an existing No position, bringing disclosed No exposure to about $9.3k at a 64¢ average.
- The market has moved toward No over the past day, which lines up with this add.
$1,021 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial cross-market No add
Serial cross-market trader with a positive long-run record is adding $3.6k to an existing No position on a geopolitical market with recent No momentum.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market bettor across 76 markets and is up $23k lifetime.
- They added $3.6k to an existing No position, bringing disclosed No exposure to about $9.3k at a 64¢ average.
- The market has moved toward No over the past day, which lines up with this add.
$2,187 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial trader scales into No
A highly experienced serial trader with $1.45M in profits added $35.5K to an existing No position amid an extreme volume spike, despite the wallet’s relatively high average winning price.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,112 resolved trades and earned $1.45M in profit across 123 events.
- They added $35,478 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in this side to over $81,000.
- The trade coincided with a 247x historical volume spike, while No has strengthened from 78¢ to roughly 80¢.
$38,913 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
94% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing No position while participating in a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 246 resolved trades and earned $163,110 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $1,505 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 15.
- It belongs to a 19-wallet funded cluster, while the broader trader has positioned across four markets in this event.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial trader scales into No
A highly experienced serial trader with $1.45M in profits added $35.5K to an existing No position amid an extreme volume spike, despite the wallet’s relatively high average winning price.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,112 resolved trades and earned $1.45M in profit across 123 events.
- They added $35,478 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in this side to over $81,000.
- The trade coincided with a 247x historical volume spike, while No has strengthened from 78¢ to roughly 80¢.
$2,366 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $240,406 (87% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Yes, $61,250 (56% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $54,131 (64% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $46,563 (73% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Yes, $31,122 (82% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — Yes, $19,347 (70% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Yes, $12,719 (46% win rate)
- 0xa5fd...36d1 — Yes, $12,222 (38% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $11,315 (71% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — Yes, $10,219 (69% win rate)
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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Someone else wins Peru presidency
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