Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether the US government or military will officially announce that it has physical possession or control of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $8,488 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent cluster buying on the longshot Yes side. The market resolves to No if there is no official US confirmation by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,488.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market specialist
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable 140-market history is adding a Yes position as part of a larger $30.6k event thesis.
- This bettor has traded 58 markets across 29 related events and is up $169k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 markets in this event, with $30.6k tied to the same broader thesis.
- Entry at 13¢ offers a high-upside bet if the uranium custody scenario materializes.
$1,198 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Sharp cluster buying longshot Yes
Three experienced cross-market bettors, including a 90% winner and a $1.8M-profit wallet, are all positioning Yes on a geopolitical uranium market at roughly 11–12¢.
- Three proven bettors are all taking the same side, including one who wins 90% of resolved bets.
- One wallet has made $1.8M lifetime and is buying Yes at 12¢ on this market.
- The No sale converts to a Yes buy around 11¢, making the cluster’s effective entry about 11–12¢.
$7,290 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x9c26...74bc — No, $50,625 (94% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $18,004 (90% win rate)
- 0x8f7a...db40 — Yes, $15,000 (77% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $9,215 (58% win rate)
- 0x9687...2f43 — Yes, $8,592
- 0x0260...0d88 — No, $8,500 (75% win rate)
- 0xb464...1d98 — Yes, $7,142
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $6,671 (70% win rate)
- 0xc021...1fa8 — No, $5,522 (54% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — No, $5,000 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran peace deal by April
Covers 6 related markets
US gets uranium in June
Covers 2 related markets
