Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives will begin by August 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Live Yes/No odds were not included in the provided metadata; PolySpotter tracks $4,688 in smart money across one signal, with recent alerts showing activity on both outcomes.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,266.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting

Notable Trades

92% winner scaling into No

A proven 92% bettor is adding to an existing No position while two other wallets also take the No side, with the market recently falling to 20% Yes.

  • This bettor wins 92% of 388 resolved trades and added $1,783 to No at 78¢.
  • Three wallets committed $4,688 to No, while Yes fell 9.5% over the past day.
  • The strongest wallet is adding to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

$4,688 on No

94% winner in 19-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $168,616 in profit.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are aligned, with this cluster adding $1,044 to the No position.
  • No was bought at 87¢, near the current 86% market price, with resolution less than two months away.

$1,462 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner in 19-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $168,616 in profit.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are aligned, with this cluster adding $1,044 to the No position.
  • No was bought at 87¢, near the current 86% market price, with resolution less than two months away.

$3,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner in 19-wallet cluster

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is buying No alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster, making this a strong coordinated and track-record-backed position.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $168,616 in profit.
  • Nineteen wallets sharing a funder are aligned, with this cluster adding $1,044 to the No position.
  • No was bought at 87¢, near the current 86% market price, with resolution less than two months away.

$1,044 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $14,517 (94% win rate)
  2. 0x162f...798d Yes, $13,853 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $10,429 (85% win rate)
  4. 0x49e9...8f85 No, $8,383 (97% win rate)
  5. 0xd104...acef No, $8,000 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $7,777 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x3a23...0f72 Yes, $6,109 (24% win rate)
  8. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $5,833 (60% win rate)
  9. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $5,500 (34% win rate)
  10. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $5,343 (69% win rate)

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

6dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$10,266 tracked4 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefiremeeting
Yes
7¢
No
93¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
95¢
79¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

2d ago

$4,688 on No at 78¢

78¢93¢15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

4d ago

$1,462 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

6d ago

$3,072 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

8d ago

$1,044 on No at 87¢

87¢93¢6¢

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