Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,551.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Experienced cluster buys long-shot Yes

Three experienced wallets are taking the same long-shot Yes side on a near-deadline US-Iran diplomacy market, including two profitable high-volume traders and one serial cross-market bettor.

  • Three wallets put $6.3k on the same long-shot Yes side while the market sits near 8%.
  • Two wallets are up about $362k combined lifetime across more than $30M traded.
  • One bettor is a serial cross-market trader with $2.17M deployed across 104 markets.

$6,275 on Yes

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader bought the long-shot Yes after a sharp selloff while carrying a broader $117k event-level position.

  • This bettor has traded 1,215 resolved markets, wins 55% of them, and is up about $210k lifetime.
  • They have $117k spread across 16 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off punt.
  • Bought Yes at 5¢ after a sharp drop; the market is now around 9¢, but still within copy range.

$1,099 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Profitable political bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with 75% win rate and $66.5k lifetime profit bought $4.1k of No on a US-Iran meeting market as part of a cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $66.5k lifetime.
  • They put $4.1k on No at 88¢, backing the current favorite with meaningful size.
  • The wallet has placed $7.6k across related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,097 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

77% cross-market bettor

Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is extending a large cross-market thesis with a $4k buy on No in a plausible geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6k lifetime.
  • They have built a $126k thesis across 14 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 88¢ signals confidence that a US-Iran meeting will not happen by the deadline.

$1,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

77% cross-market bettor

Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is extending a large cross-market thesis with a $4k buy on No in a plausible geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6k lifetime.
  • They have built a $126k thesis across 14 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 88¢ signals confidence that a US-Iran meeting will not happen by the deadline.

$4,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xaf46...8c1d Outcome 46846235, $20,000 (45% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 46846235, $17,824 (69% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 46846235, $4,615 (76% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 Outcome 46846235, $3,333 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x4214...6c68 Outcome 46846235, $3,014
  6. 0x8c0b...f0fb Outcome 46846235, $2,500 (74% win rate)
  7. 0xf2e7...843e Outcome 46846235, $1,000
  8. 0x7975...f4a2 Outcome 46846235, $884
  9. 0xa0bc...d428 Outcome 46846235, $686
  10. 0x5754...e515 Outcome 46846235, $544 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 5 related markets

Iran talks won’t happen

Covers 16 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Blockade ends August 1–7

Covers 4 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran talks by June

Covers 16 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$16,551 tracked5 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

67d ago

$6,275 on Yes at 14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

67d ago

$1,099 on Yes at 5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

68d ago

$4,097 on No at 88¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

69d ago

$1,078 on No at 88¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

70d ago

$4,003 on No at 88¢

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Iran deal unlikely soon
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No US-Iran peace deal
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Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran talks won’t happen
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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Blockade ends August 1–7
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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US-Iran talks by June
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