Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026, resolving after the listed deadline. PolySpotter tracks $4,003 in smart money activity on this market, including one recent signal from a 77% cross-market bettor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,003.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

77% cross-market bettor

Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is extending a large cross-market thesis with a $4k buy on No in a plausible geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6k lifetime.
  • They have built a $126k thesis across 14 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 88¢ signals confidence that a US-Iran meeting will not happen by the deadline.

$4,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $5,272 (77% win rate)
  2. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $1,959 (93% win rate)
  3. 0x0652...9134 Yes, $1,948 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xc040...beac Yes, $1,071 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x0c3c...5eea Yes, $1,000 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x5a21...9318 No, $800 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x9f66...3a50 No, $787 (73% win rate)
  8. 0x0b9e...154a Yes, $430
  9. 0xe738...df65 No, $333 (64% win rate)
  10. 0x2cc7...2385 Yes, $295

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

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No US-Iran meeting by June

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No US-Iran peace deal

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Hormuz blockade stays in place

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Covers 2 related markets

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Iran deal arrives in June

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

3dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$4,003 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
11¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
91¢
79¢
68¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

1h ago

$4,003 on No at 88¢

88¢89¢1¢

Related Theses