Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $141,232.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

87% serial event trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% win record bought $16.6k of Yes amid a major odds surge and volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
  • They put $16.6k on Yes after trading 85 related events and $3.6M across similar markets.
  • The market has heavy momentum, with Yes up 78 points in 24 hours and volume running 14.5x normal.

$16,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Cross-market geopolitics bettor

Surfacing because a high-volume event trader is re-entering Yes amid a major same-day price breakout and broad cross-market positioning on the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor has traded 9 related markets in the same event, with about $175K positioned across them.
  • Yes has surged 65 points in a day, and this buy came during a fast 11-point move upward.
  • The wallet is profitable overall, up about $68K across more than 1,100 resolved trades.

$1,237 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%

Sharp bettor fading rally

A proven profitable wallet is fading the huge Yes rally by selling Yes at 85¢, equivalent to buying No at 15¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $16k lifetime.
  • They sold Yes at 85¢ after a massive 69-point one-day move, effectively backing No at 15¢.
  • The wallet has also positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.

$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is adding a $5.3k Yes bet after broad cross-market positioning and strong recent price momentum.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $29k lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 16 related markets, totaling $139k in exposure.
  • Yes has surged 75 points this week, and this buy at 89¢ follows the momentum.

$1,211 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp wallet fading rally

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is taking the No side after Yes rallied sharply, as part of a broad 15-market US-Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $639K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 15 related markets with $255K total exposure.
  • This trade buys No at 22¢ after Yes jumped 43 points in a day.

$4,745 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettor exits rally

A highly profitable 94% winner is exiting a prior Yes position during a major rally, which is worth watching despite looking partly like profit-taking rather than a clean new No bet.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $39.7K lifetime.
  • They sold Yes after entering around 51¢, taking profit as the market surged more than 56 points in a day.
  • The equivalent copy is No at 35¢, but this may be a cautious fade rather than a fresh all-in short.

$1,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable trader flips to No

Sharp profitable cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader US-Iran event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 409 resolved bets and is up about $269K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.4M deployed across 99 events, now active in 12 related markets.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 77¢ after a sharp price move against Yes.

$2,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

7-wallet Yes surge

High-scoring alert driven by seven wallets buying Yes together amid a major volume spike and rapid price move, suggesting coordinated momentum ahead of resolution.

  • 7 wallets bought the same side, putting $17K into Yes during the scan window.
  • The market is seeing a 10x volume spike and Yes jumped 54 points today.
  • This wallet bought at 52¢ before the market moved to about 71¢.

$1,309 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

7-wallet Yes surge

Coordinated Yes buying, a 10x volume spike, and a major same-day price surge suggest informed positioning ahead of imminent market resolution.

  • Seven wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $17K in coordinated flow.
  • Market volume spiked 10x as Yes jumped 54 points in one day.
  • This wallet sold No at 43¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 57¢ before it moved to 71¢.

$1,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable trader flips to No

Sharp profitable cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader US-Iran event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 409 resolved bets and is up about $269K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.4M deployed across 99 events, now active in 12 related markets.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 77¢ after a sharp price move against Yes.

$1,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4f5d...ea9e Outcome 43993596, $100,000 (50% win rate)
  2. 0xc4b2...9a9b Outcome 43993596, $20,905 (85% win rate)
  3. 0x2e7a...29f6 Outcome 43993596, $16,048 (53% win rate)
  4. 0xacea...8b97 Outcome 43993596, $11,858 (82% win rate)
  5. 0x64a9...7311 Outcome 43993596, $10,250
  6. 0x962f...4e37 Outcome 43993596, $10,000
  7. 0xe7f4...bc90 Outcome 43993596, $9,402 (30% win rate)
  8. 0xb2d8...6303 Outcome 43993596, $8,674
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 43993596, $8,457 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x5969...5bed Outcome 43993596, $7,320 (91% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

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Covers 6 related markets

Iran agreement lands May 27

Covers 6 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$141,232 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$16,577 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,237 on Yes at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,320 on No at 15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,211 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$4,745 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,446 on No at 35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$2,770 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,309 on Yes at 52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,010 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,279 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$1,363 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,210 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,197 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,231 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,653 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$12,757 on Yes at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$2,684 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,791 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,280 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$4,979 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$2,200 on No at 71¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,364 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$3,132 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$2,000 on No at 54¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$2,045 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$1,217 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

29d ago

$4,523 on No at 61¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$8,698 on No at 39¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

30d ago

$2,336 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

30d ago

$1,442 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

30d ago

$1,514 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

30d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

32d ago

$1,332 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

32d ago

$3,065 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

32d ago

$5,273 on Yes at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

33d ago

$1,565 on No at 22¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

33d ago

$1,075 on Yes at 80¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

33d ago

$1,063 on Yes at 61¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

28d ago

$4,907 on Yes at 36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

34d ago

$4,436 on Yes at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$3,003 on No at 59¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$1,005 on No at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$3,892 on No at 66¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$4,229 on No at 55¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$1,004 on No at 43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$2,010 on No at 44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$2,272 on Yes at 57¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

36d ago

$3,664 on Yes at 52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

37d ago

$1,053 on Yes at 45¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

38d ago

$1,260 on No at 86¢

Related Theses