Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $141,232.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
87% serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% win record bought $16.6k of Yes amid a major odds surge and volume spike.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
- They put $16.6k on Yes after trading 85 related events and $3.6M across similar markets.
- The market has heavy momentum, with Yes up 78 points in 24 hours and volume running 14.5x normal.
$16,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Cross-market geopolitics bettor
Surfacing because a high-volume event trader is re-entering Yes amid a major same-day price breakout and broad cross-market positioning on the same US-Iran event.
- This bettor has traded 9 related markets in the same event, with about $175K positioned across them.
- Yes has surged 65 points in a day, and this buy came during a fast 11-point move upward.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up about $68K across more than 1,100 resolved trades.
$1,237 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Sharp bettor fading rally
A proven profitable wallet is fading the huge Yes rally by selling Yes at 85¢, equivalent to buying No at 15¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $16k lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 85¢ after a massive 69-point one-day move, effectively backing No at 15¢.
- The wallet has also positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is adding a $5.3k Yes bet after broad cross-market positioning and strong recent price momentum.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $29k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 16 related markets, totaling $139k in exposure.
- Yes has surged 75 points this week, and this buy at 89¢ follows the momentum.
$1,211 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp wallet fading rally
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is taking the No side after Yes rallied sharply, as part of a broad 15-market US-Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $639K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 15 related markets with $255K total exposure.
- This trade buys No at 22¢ after Yes jumped 43 points in a day.
$4,745 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor exits rally
A highly profitable 94% winner is exiting a prior Yes position during a major rally, which is worth watching despite looking partly like profit-taking rather than a clean new No bet.
- This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $39.7K lifetime.
- They sold Yes after entering around 51¢, taking profit as the market surged more than 56 points in a day.
- The equivalent copy is No at 35¢, but this may be a cautious fade rather than a fresh all-in short.
$1,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable trader flips to No
Sharp profitable cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 409 resolved bets and is up about $269K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.4M deployed across 99 events, now active in 12 related markets.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 77¢ after a sharp price move against Yes.
$2,770 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
7-wallet Yes surge
High-scoring alert driven by seven wallets buying Yes together amid a major volume spike and rapid price move, suggesting coordinated momentum ahead of resolution.
- 7 wallets bought the same side, putting $17K into Yes during the scan window.
- The market is seeing a 10x volume spike and Yes jumped 54 points today.
- This wallet bought at 52¢ before the market moved to about 71¢.
$1,309 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
7-wallet Yes surge
Coordinated Yes buying, a 10x volume spike, and a major same-day price surge suggest informed positioning ahead of imminent market resolution.
- Seven wallets bought the same Yes side, totaling $17K in coordinated flow.
- Market volume spiked 10x as Yes jumped 54 points in one day.
- This wallet sold No at 43¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 57¢ before it moved to 71¢.
$1,010 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable trader flips to No
Sharp profitable cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buying No across a broader US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 409 resolved bets and is up about $269K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.4M deployed across 99 events, now active in 12 related markets.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 77¢ after a sharp price move against Yes.
$1,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x4f5d...ea9e — Outcome 43993596, $100,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — Outcome 43993596, $20,905 (85% win rate)
- 0x2e7a...29f6 — Outcome 43993596, $16,048 (53% win rate)
- 0xacea...8b97 — Outcome 43993596, $11,858 (82% win rate)
- 0x64a9...7311 — Outcome 43993596, $10,250
- 0x962f...4e37 — Outcome 43993596, $10,000
- 0xe7f4...bc90 — Outcome 43993596, $9,402 (30% win rate)
- 0xb2d8...6303 — Outcome 43993596, $8,674
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 43993596, $8,457 (70% win rate)
- 0x5969...5bed — Outcome 43993596, $7,320 (91% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran agreement lands May 27
Covers 6 related markets
