Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only for a deliberate, official meeting involving authorized representatives discussing U.S.-Iran relations; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is tracking $5,000 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,000.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable diplomacy bettor

Sharp profitable wallet bought a large Yes position in a very thin US-Iran diplomacy market, with cross-market positioning supporting the thesis.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $78.5K lifetime.
  • The $5K buy is more than 2x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a thin market.
  • They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1681...b1c7 Yes, $16,003 (78% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $7,400 (47% win rate)
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $2,337
  4. 0x215a...254c No, $1,561
  5. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $1,462 (69% win rate)
  6. 0xb51b...b4d9 No, $1,243 (61% win rate)
  7. 0xbb1f...907d No, $1,234 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x2637...26e1 No, $1,000
  9. 0x613c...e423 Yes, $900 (22% win rate)
  10. 0x0fa6...2663 No, $600 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

US-Iran talks happen soon

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

18dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$5,000 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
36¢
No
65¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
73¢
65¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

3h ago

$5,000 on Yes at 31¢

31¢36¢5¢

Related Theses