Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,640.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor buying No

A proven sharp wallet with a strong edge and $167k realized profit is buying No at 26¢ in a news-sensitive shipping market that has recently moved higher, making this a followable contrarian bet.

  • This bettor wins 76% of their resolved trades and is up about $167k overall
  • They bought No at 26¢, implying they think this outcome is meaningfully overpriced on the Yes side
  • The market has risen 14.6 points this week, so this is a sharp wallet leaning against recent momentum

$2,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 16%

86% win-rate sharp bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate bought No at 35¢, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $392k lifetime
  • They have traded 57 markets across 31 related events, suggesting a repeatable research edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 35¢ while the market still prices Yes at 66%, signaling they see the threshold as less likely than current odds imply

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 78592761, $8,000 (49% win rate)
  2. 0x0eae...4e42 Outcome 21919261, $2,260
  3. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 78592761, $2,000
  4. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 78592761, $1,758
  5. 0x8fe7...4f20 Outcome 78592761, $1,513 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xaf35...ce90 Outcome 78592761, $1,168
  7. 0x682c...17ae Outcome 78592761, $1,048
  8. 0xff7c...b233 Outcome 78592761, $863 (49% win rate)
  9. 0x2d61...1fa7 Outcome 78592761, $500 (77% win rate)
  10. 0xcd95...8c17 Outcome 78592761, $439 (73% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?$3,640 tracked2 signalsEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

93d ago

$2,241 on No at 26¢

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

93d ago

$1,400 on No at 35¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…