Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,640.
Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor buying No
A proven sharp wallet with a strong edge and $167k realized profit is buying No at 26¢ in a news-sensitive shipping market that has recently moved higher, making this a followable contrarian bet.
- This bettor wins 76% of their resolved trades and is up about $167k overall
- They bought No at 26¢, implying they think this outcome is meaningfully overpriced on the Yes side
- The market has risen 14.6 points this week, so this is a sharp wallet leaning against recent momentum
$2,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 14%
86% win-rate sharp bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate bought No at 35¢, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $392k lifetime
- They have traded 57 markets across 31 related events, suggesting a repeatable research edge rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 35¢ while the market still prices Yes at 66%, signaling they see the threshold as less likely than current odds imply
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 78592761, $8,000 (43% win rate)
- 0x0eae...4e42 — Outcome 21919261, $2,260
- 0x81a6...762e — Outcome 78592761, $2,000
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 78592761, $1,758
- 0x8fe7...4f20 — Outcome 78592761, $1,513 (62% win rate)
- 0xaf35...ce90 — Outcome 78592761, $1,168
- 0x682c...17ae — Outcome 78592761, $1,048
- 0x8177...11cb — Outcome 78592761, $914
- 0xff7c...b233 — Outcome 78592761, $863 (47% win rate)
- 0x2d61...1fa7 — Outcome 78592761, $500 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran agreement by May 28
Covers 8 related markets
Trump won't lift Hormuz blockade
Covers 8 related markets
Iran peace deal comes early
Covers 10 related markets
No US-Iran meeting by June
Covers 14 related markets
Iran closes airspace in June
Covers 4 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Oil peaks near $130
Covers 9 related markets
