Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 20 ship transit arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before April 30, 2026. The market is tied to daily "Arrivals of Ships" data published by IMF Portwatch and covers container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Traders follow this market as a real-time signal on Hormuz shipping activity, oil trade flows, and U.S.-Iran geopolitical risk.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,400.

Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

86% win-rate sharp bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate bought No at 35¢, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $392k lifetime
  • They have traded 57 markets across 31 related events, suggesting a repeatable research edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 35¢ while the market still prices Yes at 66%, signaling they see the threshold as less likely than current odds imply

$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x18c4...f6dc Yes, $10,635 (65% win rate)
  2. 0xacbc...7cc3 No, $10,000 (76% win rate)
  3. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $8,000 (37% win rate)
  4. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $6,815 (86% win rate)
  5. 0xa019...5ffd No, $5,375
  6. 0x147c...efd6 Yes, $4,544 (57% win rate)
  7. 0x853c...bd03 Yes, $4,078 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x5e73...6697 Yes, $3,800 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x77c8...bc8c No, $2,572 (29% win rate)
  10. 0xc902...cd14 Yes, $2,420 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

9d$1,400 tracked1 signalEconomyU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIranHormuzcloseHormozTrumpOilStrait of Hormuz
Yes
74¢
No
26¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “Yes
93¢
71¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

5h ago

$1,400 on No at 35¢

35¢26¢9¢

Related Theses