Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,246.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

41-0 wallet flips bullish

A very strong 41-0 profitable wallet sold No, effectively taking the Yes side, with price impact and cross-market activity despite prior No exposure.

  • This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved bets and is up about $211K lifetime.
  • They sold $7.2K of No, which is effectively a Yes bet at 18¢.
  • The trade moved against their prior No exposure, suggesting a deliberate change in view rather than a routine add.

$7,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $36,822 (57% win rate)
  2. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $12,575 (57% win rate)
  3. 0xb6f6...3075 No, $10,000 (62% win rate)
  4. 0x7661...208a No, $10,000 (68% win rate)
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $7,205 (82% win rate)
  6. 0xb4c0...92d8 No, $6,640 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $5,167 (47% win rate)
  8. 0x166f...0fdf No, $5,097
  9. 0x6bab...1292 No, $4,416 (58% win rate)
  10. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $3,304

Related Theses

US-Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 7 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 9 related markets

Hormuz blockade lifted in June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran uranium surrender in May

Covers 3 related markets

Hormuz sees heavy ship traffic

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closes airspace in May

Covers 3 related markets

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$7,246 tracked1 signalEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump
Yes
4¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
100¢
85¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

1h ago

$7,246 on Yes at 18¢

18¢4¢14¢

Related Theses