Part of: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,119.

Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Politics, Iran

Notable Trades

82% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor bought Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $780k lifetime.
They have put $2.6k across two related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader view on attendance.
Entry at 35¢ implies a roughly 2.9x payout if JD Vance attends.

$5,804 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

82% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor bought Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $780k lifetime.
They have put $2.6k across two related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader view on attendance.
Entry at 35¢ implies a roughly 2.9x payout if JD Vance attends.

$3,928 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

82% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor bought Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $780k lifetime.
They have put $2.6k across two related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader view on attendance.
Entry at 35¢ implies a roughly 2.9x payout if JD Vance attends.

$1,388 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 41145237, $2,000 (70% win rate)
0x9896...c430 — Outcome 41145237, $867
0xb7c8...e573 — Outcome 41145237, $775
0xb2fa...ce71 — Outcome 41145237, $768
0x397e...f62d — Outcome 41145237, $655
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 41145237, $614
0x49b7...b0b3 — Outcome 41145237, $611 (73% win rate)
0x0777...4b7f — Outcome 41145237, $431
0x67dd...dbd3 — Outcome 41145237, $416
0xe2a5...51b4 — Outcome 41145237, $400

Related Theses

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

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Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

ResolvedWho will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?$11,119 tracked3 signalsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranPeace DealPoliticsIran

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.