Part of: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
This prediction market asks whether JD Vance will attend an official US-Iran signing ceremony by July 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,388 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a recent alert showing an 82% winner buying Yes.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,315.
Categories: Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Politics, Iran
Notable Trades
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor bought Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $780k lifetime.
- They have put $2.6k across two related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader view on attendance.
- Entry at 35¢ implies a roughly 2.9x payout if JD Vance attends.
$3,928 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor bought Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $780k lifetime.
- They have put $2.6k across two related ceremony markets, suggesting a broader view on attendance.
- Entry at 35¢ implies a roughly 2.9x payout if JD Vance attends.
$1,388 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $8,448 (82% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $7,589 (58% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $7,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x2525...b919 — No, $6,659 (55% win rate)
- 0x9175...6acf — No, $5,507 (100% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $2,029
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $1,567 (72% win rate)
- 0x708d...ea78 — Yes, $1,197 (58% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — No, $1,028 (47% win rate)
- 0xe555...a91d — Yes, $1,000 (19% win rate)
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