Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Shehbaz Sharif will sign a written agreement, in an official capacity, that includes both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran as parties by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $2,216 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including a recent 82% cross-market sharp alert. The market resolves “Yes” only if the signing criteria are met; otherwise it resolves “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,216.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

82% cross-market sharp

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history bought Yes at 48¢ before the market moved to 58¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with $3.4M total deployed.
  • They bought Yes at 48¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢.

$2,216 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $7,622 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x8c66...44f3 Yes, $2,125 (82% win rate)
  3. 0x5e73...6697 No, $1,439 (68% win rate)
  4. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $1,404
  5. 0x645a...fd84 No, $954 (63% win rate)
  6. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $654 (54% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $521 (47% win rate)
  8. 0x0b65...293e No, $500 (92% win rate)
  9. 0xb4fc...a926 No, $498 (54% win rate)
  10. 0x0482...6b0a No, $452 (32% win rate)

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No US-Iran meeting by June

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Oil rallies, capped below $140

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Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

46dWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$2,216 tracked1 signalTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics
Yes
49¢
No
51¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
76¢
56¢
35¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

2h ago

$2,216 on Yes at 48¢

48¢49¢1¢

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