Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,686.
Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
4-wallet geopolitical surge
Four-wallet one-sided Yes cluster drove a 998x volume spike and 31-point price jump, with a 93% winning wallet adding to an existing position, though the current 98¢ price is too high to chase.
- Four wallets bought $15.1k of Yes in about 30 seconds, and the market jumped to 98¢.
- The lead wallet wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $72k lifetime, while adding to an existing Yes position.
- Volume was nearly 1,000x normal on a serious geopolitical market, suggesting fast-moving news conviction.
$15,149 on Yes
80% win-rate geopolitics bettor
Proven profitable wallet with 80% win rate and extensive cross-market history is buying Yes again on a geopolitics market, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $824k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 202 markets across 75 events and $3.9M traded.
- Buying Yes near 40¢ suggests renewed conviction after prior related positioning.
$1,051 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp cross-market No bettor
Sharp 89% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical position, buying No on a thin Iran blockade market after recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $6.5K lifetime.
- They have $7.1K positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 69¢ goes against today’s Yes move, implying confidence that blockade odds are overstated.
$2,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial geopolitics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 83% resolved win rate is adding to a Yes position at 35¢ on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
- They have traded across 28 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position at 35¢, bringing total exposure near $3.9K.
$1,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp cross-market No bettor
Sharp 89% winner is adding a cross-market geopolitical position, buying No on a thin Iran blockade market after recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $6.5K lifetime.
- They have $7.1K positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 69¢ goes against today’s Yes move, implying confidence that blockade odds are overstated.
$1,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x9868...64b0 — No, $14,525 (83% win rate)
- 0x138f...657e — No, $9,421 (67% win rate)
- 0x8f71...4e83 — No, $8,701 (100% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $4,718 (60% win rate)
- 0xfb59...83f9 — No, $2,976 (61% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $2,805 (76% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $2,598
- 0xc91b...93bd — No, $2,303
- 0x9952...2edb — No, $1,698
- 0x165e...f5aa — No, $1,391 (79% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran blockade persists into 2027
Covers 10 related markets
