Part of: US-Iran deal physically signed by...?

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will both physically sign the diplomatic agreement announced on June 14, 2026, by the June 19 deadline. PolySpotter has tracked $1,114 in smart money activity, with a recent sharp-money alert showing dip buying around 82%. The market resolves Yes only if both countries physically sign the announced agreement, including any publicly identified modified version, by the specified cutoff.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,401.

Categories: U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal, Iran, Politics, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable cluster buying Yes

Three wallets, including a highly profitable 82% winner, bought Yes before a sharp move from 43–58¢ to 86¢ amid a 93x volume spike near the signing deadline.

  • One bettor in the cluster wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $781k lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought the same side for $7.2k before Yes jumped from 43–58¢ to 86¢.
  • Volume is 93x above normal as the market nears the June 19 signing deadline.

$7,221 on Yes

Sharp bettor fades signing

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win record is taking the contrarian No side ahead of a major US-Iran signing deadline, alongside a large pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 33 resolved trades and is up $6.8K lifetime.
  • They effectively bought No at 50¢ while the market now prices No near 14¢, making this a strong contrarian stance.
  • Market volume is surging 93x above normal ahead of the June 19 signing deadline.

$1,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

82% sharp buying dip

A highly profitable 82% win-rate wallet is buying Yes after a major price drop, supported by a strong serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $781k lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader, with $3.47M deployed across 179 markets.
  • They bought Yes at 43¢ after the market fell 32 points, suggesting a contrarian view that signing remains underpriced.

$1,114 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xeff9...05fd Yes, $15,343 (28% win rate)
  2. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $11,365
  3. 0x000d...758e Yes, $8,000 (85% win rate)
  4. 0x2525...b919 Yes, $5,960 (55% win rate)
  5. 0x4b9c...c182 No, $4,776
  6. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $4,714 (82% win rate)
  7. 0x9014...5b73 Yes, $4,611
  8. 0x93fb...3e4a No, $3,998 (34% win rate)
  9. 0xbd04...fbb0 No, $3,635 (72% win rate)
  10. 0x215a...254c No, $3,513

Related Theses

Oil volatility explodes by June

Covers 10 related markets

Meeting timing arbitrage

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

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Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by June end

Covers 3 related markets

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

1dUS-Iran deal physically signed by...?$9,401 tracked3 signalsU.S. x IranPeace DealIranPoliticsGeopolitics
Yes
98¢
No
2¢

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
65¢
29¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

1h ago

$7,221 on Yes at 55¢

55¢98¢43¢

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

1h ago

$1,066 on No at 50¢

50¢2¢48¢

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

1h ago

$1,114 on Yes at 43¢

43¢98¢55¢

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Oil volatility explodes by June
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