Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether the United States will agree to Iran continuing uranium enrichment, or having the right to enrich uranium, by June 30, 2026. A “Yes” resolution can include agreements with caps, monitoring, or other restrictions, as long as the U.S. accepts some future Iranian enrichment. PolySpotter is tracking $4,399 in smart money across 2 signals, including recent Yes buying from an 87% winner and a sharp bettor fading a spike.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,564.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor fading spike

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% win rate is fading a large Yes price spike by effectively buying No at 50¢.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
  • They are fading a huge move after Yes jumped about 45 points in 24 hours.
  • The wallet has been active across related markets, with $23.5K in same-event positioning.

$2,531 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes after a major pro-Yes price breakout and related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 55¢ as the market surged 43 points in a day.
  • They have $12k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,867 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes after a major pro-Yes price breakout and related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 55¢ as the market surged 43 points in a day.
  • They have $12k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$2,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes after a major pro-Yes price breakout and related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 55¢ as the market surged 43 points in a day.
  • They have $12k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,218 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes after a major pro-Yes price breakout and related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 55¢ as the market surged 43 points in a day.
  • They have $12k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,072 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is effectively buying Yes after a major pro-Yes price breakout and related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $158k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 55¢ as the market surged 43 points in a day.
  • They have $12k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$2,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6000...f302 No, $75,563 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $71,685 (54% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 No, $52,074 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x9453...1a48 Yes, $29,885 (54% win rate)
  5. 0x606f...1083 No, $22,295 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $16,778 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xd426...334a No, $16,371 (42% win rate)
  8. 0x7523...4c4c No, $14,329 (48% win rate)
  9. 0xcb01...ead3 Yes, $12,105 (7% win rate)
  10. 0x5109...5e9c Yes, $9,599 (39% win rate)

Related Theses

No US-Iran diplomatic meeting

Covers 15 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Trump accepts fees, rejects enrichment

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Trump unfreezes assets only

Covers 3 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 3 related markets

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

14dWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?$11,564 tracked6 signalsStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsIranPoliticsIran CeasefireUraniumTrumpU.S. x IranNegotiation Topics
Yes
25¢
No
75¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “No
99¢
78¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

3h ago

$2,531 on No at 50¢

50¢75¢25¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

3h ago

$1,867 on Yes at 55¢

55¢25¢30¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

3h ago

$2,368 on Yes at 55¢

55¢25¢30¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

3h ago

$1,218 on Yes at 55¢

55¢25¢30¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

3h ago

$1,072 on Yes at 55¢

55¢25¢30¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

4h ago

$2,507 on Yes at 55¢

55¢25¢30¢

Related Theses