Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,174.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet is adding to a cross-market Iran-assets thesis after major price momentum.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades and is up $86.6k on $1.27M invested.
- They have put $10.8k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market is already up 63 points this week, and they still bought Yes at 89¢.
$4,024 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes near the end of a fast-moving political market, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,368 resolved bets and about $1.19M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 109 events, suggesting this is part of a broader event-driven strategy.
- The market has surged 55 points this week, and they are still buying Yes at 80¢.
$1,732 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes near the end of a fast-moving political market, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,368 resolved bets and about $1.19M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 109 events, suggesting this is part of a broader event-driven strategy.
- The market has surged 55 points this week, and they are still buying Yes at 80¢.
$1,031 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$2,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$4,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$1,648 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
83% win-rate political bettor
Sharp wallet with an 83% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a politically sensitive market after a large weekly price move.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $36,711 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 60¢ after the market moved 28 points over the past week.
- The trade is on a geopolitics market where informed views can matter.
$1,893 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
82% winner cross-market pro
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes after strong market momentum.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 171 markets and $3.38M traded across related events.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 71¢ as the market has jumped 20 points today and 46 points this week.
$1,392 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$4,606 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
83% win-rate political bettor
Sharp wallet with an 83% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a politically sensitive market after a large weekly price move.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $36,711 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 60¢ after the market moved 28 points over the past week.
- The trade is on a geopolitics market where informed views can matter.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $53,690 (72% win rate)
- 0xf284...b9f9 — No, $23,149 (79% win rate)
- 0x7f4e...2e3e — No, $15,000 (20% win rate)
- 0x23ec...c434 — No, $7,520
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — No, $7,400 (36% win rate)
- 0x7fd3...e662 — No, $7,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xd43d...8a2a — No, $6,036 (40% win rate)
- 0x9b9e...ae15 — No, $5,396 (71% win rate)
- 0x28aa...8f75 — No, $5,387 (66% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $4,213 (60% win rate)
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