Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,174.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Uranium, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp positive-P&L wallet is adding to a cross-market Iran-assets thesis after major price momentum.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades and is up $86.6k on $1.27M invested.
- They have put $10.8k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market is already up 63 points this week, and they still bought Yes at 89¢.
$4,024 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes near the end of a fast-moving political market, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,368 resolved bets and about $1.19M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 109 events, suggesting this is part of a broader event-driven strategy.
- The market has surged 55 points this week, and they are still buying Yes at 80¢.
$1,732 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.19M lifetime profit bought Yes near the end of a fast-moving political market, with a linked-wallet signal adding modest corroboration.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,368 resolved bets and about $1.19M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 109 events, suggesting this is part of a broader event-driven strategy.
- The market has surged 55 points this week, and they are still buying Yes at 80¢.
$1,031 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$2,001 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$4,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$1,648 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
83% win-rate political bettor
Sharp wallet with an 83% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a politically sensitive market after a large weekly price move.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $36,711 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 60¢ after the market moved 28 points over the past week.
- The trade is on a geopolitics market where informed views can matter.
$1,893 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
82% winner cross-market pro
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history is effectively buying Yes after strong market momentum.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $752K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 171 markets and $3.38M traded across related events.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 71¢ as the market has jumped 20 points today and 46 points this week.
$1,392 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp profitable wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved bets and is up $37.5K lifetime.
- They bought $4.6K of Yes at 66¢ as the market jumped 13 points today and 42 points this week.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting this is a repeat high-conviction bettor.
$4,606 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
83% win-rate political bettor
Sharp wallet with an 83% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a politically sensitive market after a large weekly price move.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $36,711 lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 60¢ after the market moved 28 points over the past week.
- The trade is on a geopolitics market where informed views can matter.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 99888603, $53,690 (69% win rate)
- 0xf284...b9f9 — Outcome 99888603, $23,149 (89% win rate)
- 0x7f4e...2e3e — Outcome 99888603, $15,000 (20% win rate)
- 0x23ec...c434 — Outcome 99888603, $7,520
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 99888603, $7,400 (36% win rate)
- 0x7fd3...e662 — Outcome 99888603, $7,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xd43d...8a2a — Outcome 99888603, $6,036 (40% win rate)
- 0x9b9e...ae15 — Outcome 99888603, $5,396 (71% win rate)
- 0x28aa...8f75 — Outcome 99888603, $5,387 (66% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 99888603, $4,213 (59% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran closes airspace mid-June
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Knicks beat Spurs comfortably
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