Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,375.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable 74% wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran nuclear thesis, selling Yes here which converts to buying No at 90¢.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved trades and is up about $20K lifetime.
  • They have placed $16K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.
  • Selling Yes at 10¢ converts to buying No at 90¢, aligned with the market's current favorite.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Perfect-record bettor buying Yes

A profitable 10-0 wallet is effectively buying Yes with $13.2k as part of a broader cross-market Iran thesis, with the market already up 13 points in 24h.

  • This bettor is 10-for-10 on resolved trades and has made $72.9k in profit.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 22¢ with a $13.2k trade, and Yes is already up to about 25¢.
  • This is part of a $22.1k cross-market Iran thesis, with the market up 13 points in the last day.

$13,205 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

85% winner building Iran thesis

Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $415k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.39M deployed across 94 markets.
  • This is part of a larger $30.7k position across three related Iran markets.

$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 25248662, $120,603 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x2acd...2f49 Outcome 25248662, $92,455
  3. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 25248662, $41,610 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 25248662, $33,236 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x5ae5...68e1 Outcome 25248662, $20,000
  6. 0x3c59...1766 Outcome 25248662, $18,712 (72% win rate)
  7. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 25248662, $18,157 (72% win rate)
  8. 0x1c12...79d9 Outcome 25248662, $17,407 (17% win rate)
  9. 0xf9b7...60a4 Outcome 25248662, $16,267 (62% win rate)
  10. 0x0042...321e Outcome 25248662, $11,899 (51% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade lifted in June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

US-Iran deal lands mid-June

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 9 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

ResolvedIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?$15,375 tracked3 signalsGeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

52d ago

$1,000 on No at 90¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

55d ago

$13,205 on Yes at 22¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

56d ago

$1,170 on Yes at 9¢

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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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