Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,375.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable 74% wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran nuclear thesis, selling Yes here which converts to buying No at 90¢.
- This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved trades and is up about $20K lifetime.
- They have placed $16K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.
- Selling Yes at 10¢ converts to buying No at 90¢, aligned with the market's current favorite.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Perfect-record bettor buying Yes
A profitable 10-0 wallet is effectively buying Yes with $13.2k as part of a broader cross-market Iran thesis, with the market already up 13 points in 24h.
- This bettor is 10-for-10 on resolved trades and has made $72.9k in profit.
- They effectively bought Yes at 22¢ with a $13.2k trade, and Yes is already up to about 25¢.
- This is part of a $22.1k cross-market Iran thesis, with the market up 13 points in the last day.
$13,205 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
85% winner building Iran thesis
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $415k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.39M deployed across 94 markets.
- This is part of a larger $30.7k position across three related Iran markets.
$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $120,603 (72% win rate)
- 0x2acd...2f49 — Yes, $92,455
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $41,610 (79% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $33,236 (67% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Yes, $20,000
- 0x3c59...1766 — Yes, $18,712 (73% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $18,157 (73% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Yes, $17,407 (17% win rate)
- 0xf9b7...60a4 — Yes, $16,267 (66% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $11,899 (52% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal unlikely soon
Covers 9 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Hormuz blockade lifted in June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
US-Iran deal lands mid-June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal arrives in June
Covers 9 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 10 related markets
