Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,375.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bettor
A profitable 74% wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran nuclear thesis, selling Yes here which converts to buying No at 90¢.
- This bettor has won 74% of 94 resolved trades and is up about $20K lifetime.
- They have placed $16K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.
- Selling Yes at 10¢ converts to buying No at 90¢, aligned with the market's current favorite.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Perfect-record bettor buying Yes
A profitable 10-0 wallet is effectively buying Yes with $13.2k as part of a broader cross-market Iran thesis, with the market already up 13 points in 24h.
- This bettor is 10-for-10 on resolved trades and has made $72.9k in profit.
- They effectively bought Yes at 22¢ with a $13.2k trade, and Yes is already up to about 25¢.
- This is part of a $22.1k cross-market Iran thesis, with the market up 13 points in the last day.
$13,205 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
85% winner building Iran thesis
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $415k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.39M deployed across 94 markets.
- This is part of a larger $30.7k position across three related Iran markets.
$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 25248662, $120,603 (69% win rate)
- 0x2acd...2f49 — Outcome 25248662, $92,455
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 25248662, $41,610 (79% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 25248662, $33,236 (70% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 25248662, $20,000
- 0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 25248662, $18,712 (72% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 25248662, $18,157 (72% win rate)
- 0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 25248662, $17,407 (17% win rate)
- 0xf9b7...60a4 — Outcome 25248662, $16,267 (62% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 25248662, $11,899 (51% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal unlikely soon
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade lifted in June
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US-Iran deal lands mid-June
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Iran deal arrives in June
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No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 10 related markets
