Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,170.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear

Notable Trades

85% winner building Iran thesis

Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $415k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.39M deployed across 94 markets.
  • This is part of a larger $30.7k position across three related Iran markets.

$1,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf9c1...39e2 No, $48,303 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xa022...77f8 Yes, $28,690 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $16,000 (85% win rate)
  4. 0x5739...5f1a No, $12,777 (53% win rate)
  5. 0xc21e...e6d3 Yes, $11,111
  6. 0x88e2...7489 Yes, $9,332 (46% win rate)
  7. 0x7c3d...5c6b Yes, $8,698 (44% win rate)
  8. 0xb6f6...3075 No, $5,000 (59% win rate)
  9. 0x8c2f...1a88 Yes, $5,000 (55% win rate)
  10. 0xd054...7e38 Yes, $5,000 (79% win rate)

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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

24d$1,170 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear
Yes
9¢
No
92¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
96¢
76¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

3h ago

$1,170 on Yes at 9¢

9¢9¢

Related Theses

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | PolySpotter