Part of: Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran will begin in Qatar by September 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,169 in smart money and 1 smart money signal on this market, with recent alerts pointing to wallet cluster activity and diplomacy-focused traders. The market resolves based on the country where the next qualifying round of US-Iran talks starts before the deadline.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,591.

Categories: Peace Deal, Iran, Trump, Nuclear, Geopolitics, US-Iran, Israel x Iran, Khamenei, Iran Ceasefire, Vance, Politics, U.S. x Iran, nuclear deal

Notable Trades

Profitable diplomacy specialist

Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $836K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 66 events with $3.7M in tracked volume.
  • Yes has already moved up 28 points in a day, and this buy at 38¢ follows that momentum.

$2,169 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable diplomacy specialist

Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $836K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 66 events with $3.7M in tracked volume.
  • Yes has already moved up 28 points in a day, and this buy at 38¢ follows that momentum.

$1,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Six-wallet one-way surge

Six wallets bought the same side into a major diplomatic market surge, with $14.3k of one-way Yes flow, a 113x volume spike, and a 28-point price move.

  • Six wallets all backed Yes within minutes, putting $14.3k behind the same diplomatic-outcome bet.
  • Volume exploded to 113x normal and Yes jumped about 28 points during the move.
  • Several buyers are experienced profitable wallets, including one up $78k over 1,174 resolved bets.

$14,252 on Yes

10-wallet funded cluster

A 10-wallet shared-funder cluster is buying Yes into a major 1-day price move on a plausible geopolitics market, despite the individual wallet lacking a strong track record.

  • 10 linked wallets funded by the same source are positioning the same way.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 41 points in the past day.
  • This buy entered at 46¢ and is already trading around 50¢.

$1,395 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%

Profitable diplomacy specialist

Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $836K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 66 events with $3.7M in tracked volume.
  • Yes has already moved up 28 points in a day, and this buy at 38¢ follows that momentum.

$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable diplomacy specialist

Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought Yes on a diplomacy market after a major 1-day price move.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $836K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 66 events with $3.7M in tracked volume.
  • Yes has already moved up 28 points in a day, and this buy at 38¢ follows that momentum.

$2,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $27,090 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $20,994
  3. 0xa65c...7997 Yes, $14,588 (56% win rate)
  4. 0x2525...b919 Yes, $6,315 (55% win rate)
  5. 0x58c0...1c8e No, $5,750 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $5,550 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xb3eb...b529 Yes, $5,094 (45% win rate)
  8. 0xa981...82b8 Yes, $4,912 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xd426...334a No, $4,409 (43% win rate)
  10. 0x7ea7...79ac Yes, $3,000 (73% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

91dWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?$23,591 tracked6 signalsPeace DealIranTrumpNuclearGeopoliticsUS-IranIsrael x IranKhameneiIran CeasefireVancePoliticsU.S. x Irannuclear deal
Yes
76¢
No
24¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
78¢
41¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

2d ago

$2,169 on Yes at 38¢

38¢76¢38¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,750 on Yes at 38¢

38¢76¢38¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

2d ago

$14,252 on Yes at 73¢

73¢76¢3¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,395 on Yes at 46¢

46¢76¢30¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

3d ago

$1,760 on Yes at 38¢

38¢76¢38¢

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

4d ago

$2,264 on Yes at 38¢

38¢76¢38¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
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Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…