Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,554.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting
Notable Trades
Proven cross-market bettor
Proven high-volume cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is adding a No position on a politics market that has strong recent No momentum.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 193 markets with $3.77M total tracked volume.
- The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 18 points in the past day.
$1,793 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp linked wallet buying NO
A high-performing wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate is buying No, backed by a large linked-wallet cluster on a politically plausible information-edge market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a larger actor behind the position.
- They bought No at 83¢ as Yes has fallen 18.5 points over the past week.
$3,851 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp linked wallet buying NO
A high-performing wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate is buying No, backed by a large linked-wallet cluster on a politically plausible information-edge market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a larger actor behind the position.
- They bought No at 83¢ as Yes has fallen 18.5 points over the past week.
$1,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and +$50k P&L bought $6.5k of No on a diplomacy market that has already moved sharply toward No.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $50k lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and 39 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $6.5k No buy aligns with the market’s recent move, with Yes down 15.5 points over the past day.
$6,528 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
8-wallet funded cluster
Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.
- This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
- They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
- The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.
$1,433 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
8-wallet funded cluster
Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.
- This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
- They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
- The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 61185693, $30,097 (57% win rate)
- 0xeaf1...3fbf — Outcome 61185693, $10,000
- 0x0bfb...26a7 — Outcome 61185693, $8,361
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 61185693, $8,265 (66% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 61185693, $3,022 (73% win rate)
- 0x73e3...3239 — Outcome 61185693, $3,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 61185693, $2,059 (48% win rate)
- 0x7e52...00f5 — Outcome 61185693, $2,044 (79% win rate)
- 0x5108...29cb — Outcome 61185693, $1,964 (86% win rate)
- 0xd7f1...73cd — Outcome 61185693, $1,513
Related Theses
World Cup favorites prevail
Covers 4 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
