Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,554.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

Proven high-volume cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is adding a No position on a politics market that has strong recent No momentum.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $852K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 193 markets with $3.77M total tracked volume.
  • The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 18 points in the past day.

$1,793 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp linked wallet buying NO

A high-performing wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate is buying No, backed by a large linked-wallet cluster on a politically plausible information-edge market.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a larger actor behind the position.
  • They bought No at 83¢ as Yes has fallen 18.5 points over the past week.

$3,851 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Sharp linked wallet buying NO

A high-performing wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate is buying No, backed by a large linked-wallet cluster on a politically plausible information-edge market.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, suggesting a larger actor behind the position.
  • They bought No at 83¢ as Yes has fallen 18.5 points over the past week.

$1,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and +$50k P&L bought $6.5k of No on a diplomacy market that has already moved sharply toward No.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $50k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 25 events and 39 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • The $6.5k No buy aligns with the market’s recent move, with Yes down 15.5 points over the past day.

$6,528 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

8-wallet funded cluster

Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.

  • This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
  • They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
  • The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.

$1,433 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

8-wallet funded cluster

Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.

  • This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
  • They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
  • The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 61185693, $30,097 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xeaf1...3fbf Outcome 61185693, $10,000
  3. 0x0bfb...26a7 Outcome 61185693, $8,361
  4. 0xe234...304a Outcome 61185693, $8,265 (66% win rate)
  5. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 61185693, $3,022 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x73e3...3239 Outcome 61185693, $3,000 (93% win rate)
  7. 0x8b72...6dbe Outcome 61185693, $2,059 (48% win rate)
  8. 0x7e52...00f5 Outcome 61185693, $2,044 (79% win rate)
  9. 0x5108...29cb Outcome 61185693, $1,964 (86% win rate)
  10. 0xd7f1...73cd Outcome 61185693, $1,513

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

ResolvedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$18,554 tracked6 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefiremeeting

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

30d ago

$1,793 on No at 80¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

30d ago

$3,851 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

31d ago

$1,949 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

37d ago

$6,528 on No at 81¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

40d ago

$1,433 on Yes at 87¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

40d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 87¢

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Iran deal by mid-June
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Hormuz blockade persists
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Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…