Part of: Israel military action against Yemen by...?
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,627.
Categories: Middle East, World, Yemen, Israel, Geopolitics, Military Strikes, Regional Spillover, strike, Houthis
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor buying Yes
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the trader has a strong 77% win record across 128 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 16¢, betting against the current 84% No consensus.
- The $2.5K trade is meaningful versus the market’s $5.7K 24h volume.
$2,501 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
79% winner buying NO
Surface despite the low composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has a 79% resolved win rate and $24k profit, making the No buy worth tracking.
- This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades and is up $24,120 lifetime.
- The wallet has been flagged 5 times historically, suggesting repeat notable positioning rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 77¢ on a liquid geopolitical market, implying confidence the strike does not happen by deadline.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $253k lifetime profit is buying No against recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor has won 74% of 170 resolved trades and is up $253k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $571k deployed across 49 events and 63 markets.
- They bought No at 66¢ despite Yes rising 18.5 points this week, making this a notable contrarian position.
$1,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitically meaningful market with strong recent upward momentum.
- This bettor is up $219K lifetime across 662 resolved markets.
- They have traded 255 markets across 158 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢, alongside a 13.5-point weekly price rise.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable geopolitical specialist
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 80¢ on a geopolitical market, with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and $570k lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 54 events with $2.6M placed.
- Buying No at 80¢ signals confidence that the strike risk is overpriced.
$2,251 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp serial cross-market bettor
Sharp cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and +$570k lifetime P&L bought No on an active geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
- They have traded 155 markets across 54 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 78¢ goes against the recent Yes move, with Yes up 10.5 points today.
$1,169 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial event trader
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No on a geopolitics market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570K lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 54 events and $2.6M in flagged volume.
- Buying No at 76¢ goes against a recent Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian view that a strike remains unlikely.
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved-bet win rate is fading the sharp move toward Yes by buying No.
- This bettor has won 73% of 162 resolved bets and is up about $249K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 47 events with over $536K tracked in similar positioning.
- They bought No at 65¢ after Yes jumped 27 points, suggesting they are fading the recent strike-risk spike.
$1,357 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
82% winner fading spike
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 70¢, fading a major Yes price spike on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $570K lifetime.
- They have traded 154 markets across 53 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 70¢ fades a sharp Yes rally of about 24 points in the past day.
$1,739 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable bettor backing No
A profitable high-volume wallet put $3.1k into No on a quiet geopolitical market, pushing with the recent move toward lower Israel-strike odds.
- This wallet is up $114k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
- The $3.1k No buy was larger than the market’s recent daily volume, showing notable conviction in a quiet market.
- The trade is already moving the right way, with No bought around 83¢ and now trading near 86¢.
$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%
Top Holders
- 0x6bed...43cf — Outcome 83617518, $9,904
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 83617518, $9,773 (72% win rate)
- 0x0484...e0ee — Outcome 83617518, $6,982 (58% win rate)
- 0xce71...83bc — Outcome 83617518, $6,321 (72% win rate)
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 83617518, $6,200 (36% win rate)
- 0x24fc...9fd4 — Outcome 83617518, $6,006
- 0xd17e...d5b6 — Outcome 83617518, $5,595
- 0x485a...21cb — Outcome 83617518, $3,269 (33% win rate)
- 0x40a6...133c — Outcome 83617518, $3,121
- 0x000d...758e — Outcome 83617518, $2,921 (85% win rate)
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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No US-Iran peace deal
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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