Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or extension of a ceasefire with Iran by May 24 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves “Yes” only if there is a public U.S. announcement committing to a continued halt in direct military engagement or a qualifying new agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,040 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a profitable wallet fading Yes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,713.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable high-volume politics bettor is expressing a Yes view amid a 259x volume spike and repeated cross-market positioning on the same Iran event.

  • This bettor is up about $39K lifetime and has traded over $4.6M across resolved markets.
  • They are positioned across multiple related Iran markets, suggesting a broader event-level thesis.
  • This market saw a 259x volume spike, which can signal fast-moving informed positioning.

$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

New profitable wallet fades Yes

A 2-hour-old wallet with early profits placed a meaningful $2.2k No bet on a news-driven Iran agreement market, though the price has moved against them since entry.

  • This 2-hour-old wallet already has 5 positions and is up $277.
  • They put $2.2k on No in a news-driven Iran market where informed timing could matter.
  • Entry at 37¢ implies about a 2.7x payout if no qualifying announcement happens by the deadline.

$2,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Profitable serial cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and $167k lifetime profit is buying No on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,170 resolved bets and is up $167,729 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $618,555 bet across 199 related markets.
  • Buying No at 30¢ implies they see the market overstating the chance of a U.S.-Iran agreement by May 24.

$2,428 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa022...77f8 No, $60,927 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $25,878 (57% win rate)
  3. 0x161a...6f22 Yes, $20,000
  4. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $14,034 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $9,750 (62% win rate)
  6. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $9,133 (68% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $7,000 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xfe18...2c1b No, $6,099 (60% win rate)
  9. 0x162f...798d Yes, $5,000 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $5,000 (65% win rate)

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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

365dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$5,713 tracked3 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
70¢
No
31¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “Yes
80¢
70¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

48m ago

$1,040 on Yes at 68¢

68¢70¢2¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

1h ago

$2,245 on No at 37¢

37¢31¢6¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

3h ago

$2,428 on No at 30¢

30¢31¢1¢

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