Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, peace deal, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by June 9 at 11:59 PM ET. The listed resolution date is June 30, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $1,105 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,641.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% record is reinforcing a broader Iran-event thesis across 8 related markets, buying No at 89¢.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 443 resolved trades and is up $56.7K lifetime.
  • They have put $49.7K across 8 related markets in this same event, suggesting a coordinated thesis.
  • Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement announcement happens by the deadline.

$1,105 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

90% winner cross-market whale

Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved win rate and +$205k P&L is making a large No bet as part of a $322k cross-market Iran-event position.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $205k lifetime.
  • They have positioned $322k across 5 related Iran markets, suggesting a clear broader thesis.
  • This $34k No buy is larger than the market’s full 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.

$34,252 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is extending a $42.7k cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis by buying No at 85¢.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $41.3k lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 6 related Iran markets with $42.7k total exposure.
  • Buying No at 85¢ shows conviction that no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement happens by the deadline.

$1,284 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xeed5...1a33 No, $155,761 (90% win rate)
  2. 0x12d6...f2a8 Yes, $37,334 (48% win rate)
  3. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $25,467 (95% win rate)
  4. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $25,000 (57% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $23,867 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x557a...3d56 Yes, $15,888 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x8d7a...276f Yes, $14,383 (13% win rate)
  8. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $10,658 (31% win rate)
  9. 0x5666...c630 Yes, $9,000
  10. 0x4699...e03c No, $7,025 (97% win rate)

Related Theses

No US-Iran meeting

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No Iran deal by June

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran deal lands in May

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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

20dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$36,641 tracked3 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran
Yes
6¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Price History — “No
99¢
90¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

4d ago

$1,105 on No at 89¢

89¢94¢5¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

5d ago

$34,252 on No at 87¢

87¢94¢7¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

5d ago

$1,284 on No at 85¢

85¢94¢9¢

Related Theses