Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,907.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.
- This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
- The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
- The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.
$1,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.
- This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
- The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
- The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.
$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.
- This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
- The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
- The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.
$3,666 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Seven-market diplomatic thesis
A repeat cross-market trader is taking a fresh Yes position as part of a $62,471 directional thesis across seven related markets, though its track record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This wallet is positioning across 7 related markets, with $62,471 committed to the same event thesis across repeated alerts.
- The new $1,040 Yes purchase is near even odds at 52¢, suggesting meaningful conviction rather than a routine high-probability favorite.
- The wallet has won 61% of 4,576 resolved bets and earned $172,362, but its 76¢ average winning entry limits the evidence of a sharp price edge.
$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster
A seven-wallet funded cluster is accumulating Yes at 45¢, providing a meaningful coordinated-flow signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate track record.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have collectively backed Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The trade buys Yes at 45¢ while the market is near-even at 46%, leaving substantial upside if a meeting occurs.
- The lead wallet is profitable overall (+$20,794), though its 60% win rate is not independently elite.
$1,085 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $25,659 (70% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $12,661 (70% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — Yes, $12,290 (79% win rate)
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $8,846 (61% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $7,566 (60% win rate)
- 0x3007...763a — No, $7,317 (74% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $6,000 (48% win rate)
- 0x6bab...0fe5 — No, $5,788 (75% win rate)
- 0x11f3...d859 — Yes, $5,353 (70% win rate)
- 0xfb57...0a46 — Yes, $5,000 (87% win rate)
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