Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,907.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
  • The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
  • The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.

$1,956 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
  • The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
  • The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.

$1,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp bettor scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial positive edge is buying No while positioning across four markets in the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor wins 76% of trades across 356 resolved bets and is up $945,280 lifetime.
  • The wallet has a measured 17-percentage-point edge over its average entry odds, making the $3,666 No bet more notable.
  • The trader is active across four markets tied to this event, with $31,723 deployed and a consistent 76% win rate.

$3,666 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Seven-market diplomatic thesis

A repeat cross-market trader is taking a fresh Yes position as part of a $62,471 directional thesis across seven related markets, though its track record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • This wallet is positioning across 7 related markets, with $62,471 committed to the same event thesis across repeated alerts.
  • The new $1,040 Yes purchase is near even odds at 52¢, suggesting meaningful conviction rather than a routine high-probability favorite.
  • The wallet has won 61% of 4,576 resolved bets and earned $172,362, but its 76¢ average winning entry limits the evidence of a sharp price edge.

$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster

A seven-wallet funded cluster is accumulating Yes at 45¢, providing a meaningful coordinated-flow signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate track record.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder have collectively backed Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trade buys Yes at 45¢ while the market is near-even at 46%, leaving substantial upside if a meeting occurs.
  • The lead wallet is profitable overall (+$20,794), though its 60% win rate is not independently elite.

$1,085 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $25,659 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x0845...6b6f No, $12,661 (70% win rate)
  3. 0xbf4d...33ed Yes, $12,290 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $8,846 (61% win rate)
  5. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $7,566 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x3007...763a No, $7,317 (74% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,000 (48% win rate)
  8. 0x6bab...0fe5 No, $5,788 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x11f3...d859 Yes, $5,353 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xfb57...0a46 Yes, $5,000 (87% win rate)

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran surrenders uranium in May

Covers 4 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

111dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$8,907 tracked5 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran CeasefiremeetingmeetDiplomatic meeting
Yes
38¢
No
63¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
68¢
63¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

1d ago

$1,956 on No at 46¢

46¢63¢17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

3d ago

$1,160 on No at 46¢

46¢63¢17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

16d ago

$3,666 on No at 46¢

46¢63¢17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

17d ago

$1,040 on Yes at 52¢

52¢38¢14¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

21d ago

$1,085 on Yes at 45¢

45¢38¢7¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran surrenders uranium in May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…