Part of: Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,632.

Categories: Politics, Vance, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Trump, Kushner, Iran Ceasefire, rubio, Witkoff, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

82% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
  • Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.

$1,564 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

82% winner buying dip

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 82% record across 11 resolved positions with positive lifetime P&L and is buying Yes despite recent weakness.

  • This bettor has won 82% of resolved positions and is up $15.4K lifetime.
  • They bought $2K of Yes at 41¢ while the market has since drifted to 33¢.
  • Their past wins came at 41¢ average odds, suggesting a meaningful track record on mid-priced bets.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

82% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
  • Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.

$2,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

82% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
  • Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.

$1,496 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

82% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
  • Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.

$4,536 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

82% serial cross-market sharp

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
  • They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
  • Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.

$1,483 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

92% winner buying momentum

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a political market.

  • This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved trades and is up about $40K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ after the market moved up 40 points in a day.
  • The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting an ongoing pattern rather than a one-off trade.

$1,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

87% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with an 87% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $178K lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 13¢ after the market fell 9 points this week.
  • The $3K trade is large for recent activity, roughly 81% of the market’s 24h volume.

$3,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial politics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 28¢ in a thin market with a wide spread.

  • This bettor has made 1,131 resolved trades and is up $316,912 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 47 events and 79 markets, suggesting a repeatable politics/news thesis.
  • Selling No at 72¢ equals buying Yes at 28¢, below the current 31¢ market price.

$1,197 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

86% win-rate event trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh bearish view here by selling Yes at 61¢, which converts to buying No at 39¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime
  • They trade across 56 related markets and 30 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Selling Yes at 61¢ is equivalent to buying No at 39¢, a relatively cheap entry versus current Yes odds near 63%

$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6dd8...d4e7 Outcome 10693233, $10,994
  2. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 10693233, $7,282 (86% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 10693233, $4,593 (75% win rate)
  4. 0x645a...fd84 Outcome 10693233, $2,504 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x126e...c360 Outcome 10693233, $2,000
  6. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 10693233, $1,192 (73% win rate)
  7. 0xacbc...7cc3 Outcome 10693233, $1,138 (16% win rate)
  8. 0x095d...52cf Outcome 10693233, $1,077
  9. 0xcfb5...7d2d Outcome 10693233, $1,037 (67% win rate)
  10. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 10693233, $927

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Iran ceasefire date arbitrage

Covers 5 related markets

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

ResolvedWho will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$47,632 tracked13 signalsPoliticsVanceIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsTrumpKushnerIran CeasefirerubioWitkoffPeace Deal

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

38d ago

$1,564 on Yes at 51¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

38d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 41¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

39d ago

$2,736 on Yes at 51¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

41d ago

$1,496 on Yes at 51¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

41d ago

$4,536 on Yes at 51¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

41d ago

$1,483 on Yes at 51¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

43d ago

$1,125 on Yes at 78¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

54d ago

$3,040 on Yes at 13¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

71d ago

$1,197 on Yes at 28¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

100d ago

$2,456 on No at 39¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

100d ago

$10,000 on No at 64¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

100d ago

$13,000 on No at 62¢

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

100d ago

$3,000 on No at 32¢

Related Theses

Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran ceasefire date arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…