Part of: Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
13 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,632.
Categories: Politics, Vance, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Trump, Kushner, Iran Ceasefire, rubio, Witkoff, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
82% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
- Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.
$1,564 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
82% winner buying dip
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 82% record across 11 resolved positions with positive lifetime P&L and is buying Yes despite recent weakness.
- This bettor has won 82% of resolved positions and is up $15.4K lifetime.
- They bought $2K of Yes at 41¢ while the market has since drifted to 33¢.
- Their past wins came at 41¢ average odds, suggesting a meaningful track record on mid-priced bets.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
82% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
- Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.
$2,736 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
82% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
- Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.
$1,496 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
82% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
- Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.
$4,536 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
82% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and large lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes while also showing a strong serial cross-market pattern.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $788K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, with $3.46M deployed across 179 related markets.
- Selling No at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢, before Yes moved to about 54¢.
$1,483 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
92% winner buying momentum
Sharp wallet override: this bettor has a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, buying Yes into strong recent momentum on a political market.
- This bettor has won 12 of 13 resolved trades and is up about $40K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 78¢ after the market moved up 40 points in a day.
- The wallet has been flagged 29 times before, suggesting an ongoing pattern rather than a one-off trade.
$1,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
87% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with an 87% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $178K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 13¢ after the market fell 9 points this week.
- The $3K trade is large for recent activity, roughly 81% of the market’s 24h volume.
$3,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial politics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 28¢ in a thin market with a wide spread.
- This bettor has made 1,131 resolved trades and is up $316,912 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 47 events and 79 markets, suggesting a repeatable politics/news thesis.
- Selling No at 72¢ equals buying Yes at 28¢, below the current 31¢ market price.
$1,197 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
86% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh bearish view here by selling Yes at 61¢, which converts to buying No at 39¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime
- They trade across 56 related markets and 30 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 61¢ is equivalent to buying No at 39¢, a relatively cheap entry versus current Yes odds near 63%
$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x6dd8...d4e7 — Outcome 10693233, $10,994
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 10693233, $7,282 (86% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10693233, $4,593 (75% win rate)
- 0x645a...fd84 — Outcome 10693233, $2,504 (63% win rate)
- 0x126e...c360 — Outcome 10693233, $2,000
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10693233, $1,192 (73% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Outcome 10693233, $1,138 (16% win rate)
- 0x095d...52cf — Outcome 10693233, $1,077
- 0xcfb5...7d2d — Outcome 10693233, $1,037 (67% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 10693233, $927
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
Crude oil market arbitrage
Covers 11 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran ceasefire date arbitrage
Covers 5 related markets
