Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic talks between representatives of the United States and Iran will begin by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks $10,107 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from sharp-linked wallets and profitable clusters on both Yes and No. The market resolves based on whether qualifying talks begin by the listed deadline.
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,628.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster buying NO
A coordinated NO push is worth surfacing because a 93% historical winner is adding to an existing position while the market has moved sharply toward NO.
- A bettor who wins 93% of resolved bets added nearly $4K more to NO and is already holding a larger NO position.
- Three wallets put about $10K on the same side, equal to roughly 20% of the market’s 24h volume.
- The market has already moved strongly toward NO, with Yes down 8.5 points today and 27.5 points this week.
$10,107 on No
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader made a fresh Yes buy on a plausible diplomacy catalyst, large relative to the market’s prior activity and already followed by a price move.
- This bettor has traded 57 related event markets and is up $42K across a large history.
- Their $3.3K Yes buy was nearly 3x the market’s prior 24h volume flagged by the alert.
- Yes has already moved from their 77¢ entry to about 81¢, matching the direction of the bet.
$1,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$2,126 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$3,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$2,375 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$1,178 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$1,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$7,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$1,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x9c98...f4f4 — No, $21,917 (93% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $21,378 (49% win rate)
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — Yes, $13,976 (82% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $10,760 (78% win rate)
- 0x5e73...6697 — Yes, $8,877 (69% win rate)
- 0x73cc...151d — Yes, $8,062 (100% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $7,935 (47% win rate)
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Yes, $7,837
- 0xa32d...777f — No, $7,409 (67% win rate)
- 0xe533...ab29 — Yes, $7,157
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