Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic talks between representatives of the United States and Iran will begin by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks $10,107 in smart money activity on this market, including signals from sharp-linked wallets and profitable clusters on both Yes and No. The market resolves based on whether qualifying talks begin by the listed deadline.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,628.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting

Notable Trades

Sharp cluster buying NO

A coordinated NO push is worth surfacing because a 93% historical winner is adding to an existing position while the market has moved sharply toward NO.

  • A bettor who wins 93% of resolved bets added nearly $4K more to NO and is already holding a larger NO position.
  • Three wallets put about $10K on the same side, equal to roughly 20% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • The market has already moved strongly toward NO, with Yes down 8.5 points today and 27.5 points this week.

$10,107 on No

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader made a fresh Yes buy on a plausible diplomacy catalyst, large relative to the market’s prior activity and already followed by a price move.

  • This bettor has traded 57 related event markets and is up $42K across a large history.
  • Their $3.3K Yes buy was nearly 3x the market’s prior 24h volume flagged by the alert.
  • Yes has already moved from their 77¢ entry to about 81¢, matching the direction of the bet.

$1,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

93% sharp linked wallet

Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
  • They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.

$2,126 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% sharp linked wallet

Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
  • They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.

$3,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% sharp linked wallet

Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
  • They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.

$2,375 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
  • Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.

$1,178 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

93% sharp linked wallet

Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
  • They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
  • The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.

$1,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
  • Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.

$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
  • Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.

$7,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Serial cross-market winner

Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
  • Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.

$1,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $21,917 (93% win rate)
  2. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $21,378 (49% win rate)
  3. 0xc7e5...2d3a Yes, $13,976 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $10,760 (78% win rate)
  5. 0x5e73...6697 Yes, $8,877 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x73cc...151d Yes, $8,062 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $7,935 (47% win rate)
  8. 0x9ad0...bf3d Yes, $7,837
  9. 0xa32d...777f No, $7,409 (67% win rate)
  10. 0xe533...ab29 Yes, $7,157

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail

Covers 4 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

13dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$51,628 tracked14 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefiremeeting
Yes
11¢
No
90¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
91¢
73¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

1d ago

$10,107 on No at 79¢

79¢90¢11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

1d ago

$1,148 on Yes at 77¢

77¢11¢66¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

2d ago

$2,126 on No at 69¢

69¢90¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

4d ago

$3,043 on No at 69¢

69¢90¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

5d ago

$2,375 on No at 69¢

69¢90¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

5d ago

$1,178 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

5d ago

$1,045 on No at 69¢

69¢90¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

6d ago

$2,720 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

6d ago

$7,279 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

8d ago

$1,111 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

9d ago

$1,080 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

9d ago

$2,181 on No at 38¢

38¢90¢52¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

15d ago

$12,958 on Yes at 64¢

64¢11¢53¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

24d ago

$3,278 on Yes at 77¢

77¢11¢66¢

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail
Wallet_0x9c987 trades 4 related markets
Will England win the 2026 FIFA…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Argentina win the 2026 FI…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…