Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if authorized representatives meet directly for diplomacy or negotiation on US-Iran relations by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,168 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,856.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $15,776 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $14,967 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x5011...220e No, $11,361 (58% win rate)
  4. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $9,169 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xaf23...aa95 No, $7,618 (63% win rate)
  6. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $6,398 (77% win rate)
  7. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $5,367 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xe738...df65 No, $3,624 (64% win rate)
  9. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $3,393 (88% win rate)
  10. 0xab7b...f350 No, $3,366 (51% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

US-Iran meeting unlikely soon

Covers 16 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Trump unfreezes assets only

Covers 3 related markets

No Israel-Hezbollah peace deal

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 3 related markets

US-Iran meeting won't happen

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

5hUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$6,856 tracked4 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
9¢
No
92¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
94¢
74¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

1d ago

$2,168 on No at 87¢

87¢92¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

1d ago

$1,271 on No at 87¢

87¢92¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2d ago

$2,413 on No at 87¢

87¢92¢5¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

3d ago

$1,004 on No at 87¢

87¢92¢5¢

Related Theses