Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 18, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $15,119 in smart money exposure across 2 signals, with recent activity including Yes buyers and geopolitical thesis bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,975.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Deadline Yes buyers
High-composite US-Iran diplomacy alert with three wallets moving Yes-equivalent near deadline, including a brand-new repeat bettor and cross-market positioning, though much of the size is No-selling that may be profit-taking.
- Three wallets put nearly $9k into the Yes side as the market nears its deadline.
- One brand-new wallet is already on its fourth flagged position within 7 hours.
- Two wallets have been active across 8–9 related markets, including one up $121k lifetime.
$8,958 on Yes
Fresh wallet geopolitical bet
Very new wallet has placed nearly $10k across four flagged positions, including a $6.2k Yes bet across related US-Iran markets despite no resolved track record yet.
- A 7-hour-old wallet has already put nearly $10k into flagged positions, suggesting strong fresh conviction.
- This is a real geopolitical market where informed positioning is plausible, not a meme or trivial market.
- The wallet is also active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
$6,160 on Yes
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$1,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$2,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $15,776 (82% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $14,967 (69% win rate)
- 0x5011...220e — No, $12,661 (58% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $9,169 (69% win rate)
- 0xad4e...12f1 — No, $7,819
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $6,398 (77% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $4,500 (64% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $4,340 (47% win rate)
- 0x1b56...715e — No, $3,801 (94% win rate)
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $3,393 (88% win rate)
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