Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by 11:59 PM ET on June 18, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $15,119 in smart money exposure across 2 signals, with recent activity including Yes buyers and geopolitical thesis bettors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,975.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Deadline Yes buyers

High-composite US-Iran diplomacy alert with three wallets moving Yes-equivalent near deadline, including a brand-new repeat bettor and cross-market positioning, though much of the size is No-selling that may be profit-taking.

  • Three wallets put nearly $9k into the Yes side as the market nears its deadline.
  • One brand-new wallet is already on its fourth flagged position within 7 hours.
  • Two wallets have been active across 8–9 related markets, including one up $121k lifetime.

$8,958 on Yes

Fresh wallet geopolitical bet

Very new wallet has placed nearly $10k across four flagged positions, including a $6.2k Yes bet across related US-Iran markets despite no resolved track record yet.

  • A 7-hour-old wallet has already put nearly $10k into flagged positions, suggesting strong fresh conviction.
  • This is a real geopolitical market where informed positioning is plausible, not a meme or trivial market.
  • The wallet is also active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

$6,160 on Yes

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $15,776 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $14,967 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x5011...220e No, $12,661 (58% win rate)
  4. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $9,169 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xad4e...12f1 No, $7,819
  6. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $6,398 (77% win rate)
  7. 0xe738...df65 No, $4,500 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,340 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x1b56...715e No, $3,801 (94% win rate)
  10. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $3,393 (88% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

US-Iran meeting unlikely soon

Covers 16 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Trump unfreezes assets only

Covers 3 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 3 related markets

No Israel-Hezbollah peace deal

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran meeting won't happen

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

5hUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$21,975 tracked6 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
11¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
94¢
74¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

3h ago

$8,958 on Yes at 18¢

18¢11¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

3h ago

$6,160 on Yes at 35¢

35¢11¢24¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

1d ago

$2,168 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

1d ago

$1,271 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2d ago

$2,413 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

3d ago

$1,004 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢

Related Theses