Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $29,134.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting
Notable Trades
94% winner adding to No
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to a No position while part of a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 265 resolved trades and earned $191,055 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $1,718 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
- Nineteen wallets share the same funder, while No is priced near 58¢ despite recent upward momentum in the market.
$5,302 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner adding to No
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to a No position while part of a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 265 resolved trades and earned $191,055 in profit.
- The wallet is adding $1,718 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
- Nineteen wallets share the same funder, while No is priced near 58¢ despite recent upward momentum in the market.
$1,718 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Serial cross-market winner adding to Yes
A serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 59% amid strong upward market momentum.
- This bettor has won 84% of 32 resolved trades and earned $32,765 in realized profit.
- The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position at 59%, signaling continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- Yes has risen 17.5% in one day as follow-on U.S.-Iran talks appear increasingly plausible.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable No position, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $6,275 to the market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
- This bettor added $3,250 to an existing $5,000 No position at 65¢, while No has risen to 68%.
- The wallet has a 69% win rate across 91 resolved bets and trades across 30 events, providing useful but not exceptional supporting history.
$3,329 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 328 resolved bets and a documented edge is buying Yes alongside positions in two related markets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 328 resolved trades and earned about $690,000 in profit.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same US-Iran event, with $26,582 committed and 78 events traded historically.
- The $1,038 Yes purchase at 42¢ follows a 7.5-point one-day rise while Yes remains below 50%.
$1,475 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Linked wallets back Yes conviction
Three wallets deployed nearly $5.9K toward Yes, including two linked wallets and a highly successful bettor, while the market has already risen 11.5% in a day.
- Three wallets bought Yes for $5,894, including two funded by the same source.
- A bettor with an 87% win rate bought $1,659 of Yes at 46¢.
- The market rose 11.5% in one day, while another trader closed a No position—supporting the bullish direction.
$5,894 on Yes
Profitable serial event trader
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 328 resolved bets and a documented edge is buying Yes alongside positions in two related markets.
- This bettor has won 75% of 328 resolved trades and earned about $690,000 in profit.
- They are positioning across three markets in the same US-Iran event, with $26,582 committed and 78 events traded historically.
- The $1,038 Yes purchase at 42¢ follows a 7.5-point one-day rise while Yes remains below 50%.
$1,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp serial trader buys Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with 1,427 resolved positions and an exceptional edge bought Yes at 36¢ in a plausible diplomatic-timeline market.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved positions and is up $754,059.
- The trader typically buys around 40¢ but entered Yes at just 36¢, implying strong confidence in another formal U.S.-Iran round by August 31.
- The market has meaningful volume and liquidity, while Yes has recently fallen 6% over a week, making this a notable contrarian position.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable No position, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate win rate.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $6,275 to the market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
- This bettor added $3,250 to an existing $5,000 No position at 65¢, while No has risen to 68%.
- The wallet has a 69% win rate across 91 resolved bets and trades across 30 events, providing useful but not exceptional supporting history.
$3,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Cross-market bettors buying NO
Three experienced cross-market political bettors are aligning on No, with one strong 74% winner adding to an existing position as the market moves their way.
- Three wallets are all betting No, putting $3.7K behind the same view as Yes has fallen 6 points today.
- One bettor has won 74% of resolved bets and is already holding a larger No position on this market.
- These wallets have traded many related event markets before, suggesting this is part of a broader Iran-talks thesis.
$3,728 on No
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 12185556, $22,115 (70% win rate)
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Outcome 12185556, $11,931 (66% win rate)
- 0xff80...9b4d — Outcome 12185556, $7,501 (52% win rate)
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 12185556, $7,478 (50% win rate)
- 0x2132...7657 — Outcome 12185556, $6,974
- 0xeb77...4e6b — Outcome 12185556, $6,872 (44% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 12185556, $4,562 (94% win rate)
- 0x33fa...169d — Outcome 12185556, $4,327 (33% win rate)
- 0xe533...ab29 — Outcome 12185556, $3,000
- 0x4178...fbcb — Outcome 12185556, $2,432
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