Part of: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
46 smart money signals detected, totaling $167,228.
Categories: Iran Ceasefire, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
New whale backs NO
A 1.5-day-old wallet has made repeated large bets totaling $49k, now buying $16k of No near this geopolitical market’s deadline.
- A brand-new wallet has now made 3 large flagged bets totaling $49k.
- This $16k buy backs No at 81¢ with the market only days from resolution.
- The bet is on a real geopolitical deadline, where late positioning may reflect fresh information.
$16,000 on No
89% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $28.5k of No on a liquid geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $68k lifetime.
- They have traded across 155 markets in 120 events, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- A $28.5k buy on No at 86¢ backs the current favorite with meaningful size.
$28,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
92% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 92% resolved win rate is buying No despite only a modest single-trade signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $291K lifetime.
- They bought No at 85¢, backing the already-favored side on a major geopolitics market.
- The market has moved toward Yes recently, so this trade pushes against the 1-week drift.
$1,591 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a plausible geopolitics market with recent upward momentum.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up about $258k lifetime.
- They have traded across 77 events and 134 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Bought Yes at 17¢ while the market has moved up 7.8 points over the past week.
$2,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a large positive track record is buying Yes into strong recent momentum, though the trade size is modest.
- This bettor has traded across 90 markets and is up about $221K lifetime.
- They win 67% of resolved bets over a large 1,064-bet sample.
- They bought Yes at 22¢ after the market moved up about 10 points in the last day.
$1,062 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp 88% winner backs No
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with an 88% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $2,000 of No despite the otherwise modest alert score.
- This bettor has won 22 of 25 resolved bets and is up $35,437 lifetime.
- Their past wins came at 73¢ average odds, so the 88% record is meaningfully better than expected.
- They bought No at 83¢ on a high-volume market moving slightly toward Yes this week.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
New repeat whale on No
A 7-day-old wallet with 45 prior large-bet flags is adding nearly $10k to No on a major politics market, but lacks resolved track record.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already triggered 45 large-bet alerts totaling $123k.
- The bettor put $9.8k on No around 79¢ after the Yes price jumped 11 points in a day.
- They flipped from a tiny Yes position to a much larger No bet, suggesting a strong change in view.
$9,821 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 7-day-old repeat large bettor with $106k in flagged activity is taking a fresh $6.5k No position against recent Yes momentum.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already made 40 flagged large bets totaling $106k.
- It bought $6.5k of No at 81¢, a clear bet against today’s 10-point Yes rally.
- The market is highly active, so this looks more like a directional thesis than a thin-market price push.
$6,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable new repeat bettor
A new repeat bettor with 6 resolved wins and positive P&L is continuing to back No in a high-volume political market.
- This new bettor is 6-for-6 on resolved trades and up $2,869 so far.
- They have now made 7 flagged positions totaling $11,554, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing the already-favored outcome with a tight 11¢ upside to full resolution.
$1,869 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
6-day repeat whale buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor put $5.3k on No in a politically plausible market, extending a $52.8k flagged betting pattern despite no resolved track record yet.
- A brand-new wallet has already made 24 large flagged bets totaling $52.8k.
- They put $5.3k on No at 88¢ while Yes has dropped about 7% today.
- The trade follows market momentum on a high-volume politics market, suggesting conviction rather than thin-market noise.
$5,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 74212672, $117,062 (82% win rate)
- 0x42c4...8ce2 — Outcome 74212672, $83,276
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 74212672, $69,647 (87% win rate)
- 0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 74212672, $56,210 (72% win rate)
- 0x7637...ffcd — Outcome 74212672, $38,141
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 74212672, $23,024 (51% win rate)
- 0xeef2...b9cc — Outcome 74212672, $8,877
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 74212672, $7,194 (56% win rate)
- 0x31c5...ede4 — Outcome 74212672, $6,064 (87% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 74212672, $6,000 (47% win rate)
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