What is the Iran airspace closure prediction market about?

This market is about whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace by July 31, 2026, excluding closures caused solely by weather. A qualifying event would need to broadly affect commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.

When does the Iran airspace closure market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether a qualifying major Iranian airspace closure occurs by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026. If no qualifying closure happens by then, the market resolves to “No.”

What counts as a “Yes” outcome in this market?

A “Yes” outcome requires a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights involving Iranian airspace, not solely due to weather. Limited disruptions, routine operational changes, or narrow airport-specific issues may not qualify unless they meet the market’s definition of a major closure.

How much smart money is being tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,200 in smart money for this market across 1 signal. Recent alerts include activity from a repeat whale buying NO, a sharp geopolitical event trader, and cross-market buyer signals.

Where can I track Iran airspace closure Polymarket odds?

You can track the latest Iran airspace closure prediction market odds, smart money signals, and related trading activity on PolySpotter’s market page.

Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will initiate a major, non-weather-related closure of its airspace by July 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if there is a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension affecting commercial flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,200 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,822.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable 7-market bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broader cross-market thesis across 7 related Iran markets, though this individual trade is modest.

This bettor is up $125,572 across 1,042 resolved bets, despite only winning about half their trades.
They have placed $33,171 across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran airspace thesis.
This trade fades the recent move higher, effectively buying No at 60¢ after Yes rose 7.5 points today.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%

Sharp geopolitical event trader

Sharp, profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on an Iran airspace closure after building a large related-event position.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $562,858 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.45M deployed across 53 events.
This is part of a larger $76,960 position across 6 related markets, suggesting a coordinated thesis.

$3,312 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp cross-market buyer

Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $562k lifetime.
They have traded 147 markets across 53 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
This is part of a broader $75k position across 5 related markets.

$2,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

New repeat whale buying NO

Brand-new wallet with repeated large-bet flags is taking a $6.6k contrarian No position on a geopolitics market despite no resolved track record yet.

A 1-day-old wallet has now triggered 5 large-bet alerts, putting $13.8k to work.
This $6.6k No position is about one-third of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction.
The trader is fading a 9.5-point move toward Yes, averaging about 74¢ on No.

$6,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

87% winner cross-market bet

Sharp 87% win-rate wallet with $478k lifetime profit is buying No while building a $33k cross-market thesis across five related Iran markets.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $478k lifetime.
They have $33k positioned across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran airspace thesis.
Buying No at 62¢ implies they see closure odds as lower than the market’s 40% Yes price.

$1,660 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

15-wallet funded cluster

High-severity 15-wallet funded cluster placed an oversized No bet on a very thin geopolitical market, with a solid resolved-bet hit rate despite negative lifetime P&L.

A 15-wallet cluster from the same funder is backing this direction, a strong coordination signal.
The $3,000 No buy was 2.5x the market’s entire 24h volume on a thin market.
This bettor has won 82% of 22 resolved bets, though lifetime profit is still negative.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0xcca9...4c9f — Outcome 78153233, $16,215 (66% win rate)
0x3554...d825 — Outcome 78153233, $8,666
0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 78153233, $5,330 (37% win rate)
0x85a8...9281 — Outcome 78153233, $5,021 (94% win rate)
0x436d...6c1d — Outcome 78153233, $4,110 (82% win rate)
0x7f9e...3a0e — Outcome 78153233, $4,016 (90% win rate)
0xc9d5...d1bb — Outcome 78153233, $2,856
0x8453...778d — Outcome 78153233, $2,800
0x4d77...af31 — Outcome 78153233, $2,500
0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 78153233, $1,800 (79% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Kharg Island falls in June

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

11dIran closes its airspace by...?$17,822 tracked6 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.