Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,518.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$2,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
91% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes while also positioning across a related Iran agreement market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $30K lifetime.
- They have placed $18K across related Iran agreement markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 36¢ goes against a 13-point daily drop, implying they see a rebound opportunity.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
98% winner cross-market No
Sharp wallet with a 98% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market No position after betting $37k across seven related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 44 of 45 resolved trades and is up $13,029 lifetime.
- They have placed $37,281 across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 48¢, and the current price is lower around 44¢, offering a better entry than the sharp wallet got.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
97% winner buying Yes
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved-market win rate and $1.0M lifetime profit bought Yes on an Iran ceasefire/agreement market despite current odds below its entry.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 172 events with a long record of profitable positioning.
- They paid 60¢ for Yes while the market is now around 46¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s buy.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
97% winner buying Yes
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved-market win rate and $1.0M lifetime profit bought Yes on an Iran ceasefire/agreement market despite current odds below its entry.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 172 events with a long record of profitable positioning.
- They paid 60¢ for Yes while the market is now around 46¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s buy.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet made a fresh Yes bet larger than the market’s entire 24h volume while positioning across related Iran-ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has a long record: 943 resolved bets, 71% winners, and $62K in profit.
- Their $2K Yes buy was bigger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin market.
- They have also traded 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
$2,042 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 15084316, $6,000 (72% win rate)
- 0xd4ab...8253 — Outcome 15084316, $5,489 (96% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 15084316, $5,380 (71% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 15084316, $1,581
- 0xc0ee...ec14 — Outcome 15084316, $1,206 (51% win rate)
- 0x22db...190f — Outcome 15084316, $1,200 (72% win rate)
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — Outcome 15084316, $1,125 (85% win rate)
- 0x97a6...2190 — Outcome 15084316, $1,078 (0% win rate)
- 0x797f...aa36 — Outcome 15084316, $1,053 (48% win rate)
- 0x2120...2647 — Outcome 15084316, $755 (100% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Heroic sweeps Gaimin Gladiators
Covers 3 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
No Iran peace deal
Covers 4 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
