Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,518.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$2,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
91% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes while also positioning across a related Iran agreement market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $30K lifetime.
- They have placed $18K across related Iran agreement markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying Yes at 36¢ goes against a 13-point daily drop, implying they see a rebound opportunity.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
98% winner cross-market No
Sharp wallet with a 98% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market No position after betting $37k across seven related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 44 of 45 resolved trades and is up $13,029 lifetime.
- They have placed $37,281 across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 48¢, and the current price is lower around 44¢, offering a better entry than the sharp wallet got.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime winner with $589k profit is taking a No position while actively trading 12 related Iran-agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $589k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.9M traded across 55 events.
- They are positioned across 12 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis against this outcome.
$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
97% winner buying Yes
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved-market win rate and $1.0M lifetime profit bought Yes on an Iran ceasefire/agreement market despite current odds below its entry.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 172 events with a long record of profitable positioning.
- They paid 60¢ for Yes while the market is now around 46¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s buy.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
97% winner buying Yes
Elite sharp wallet with a 97% resolved-market win rate and $1.0M lifetime profit bought Yes on an Iran ceasefire/agreement market despite current odds below its entry.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 172 events with a long record of profitable positioning.
- They paid 60¢ for Yes while the market is now around 46¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp’s buy.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet made a fresh Yes bet larger than the market’s entire 24h volume while positioning across related Iran-ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has a long record: 943 resolved bets, 71% winners, and $62K in profit.
- Their $2K Yes buy was bigger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin market.
- They have also traded 3 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
$2,042 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $6,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xd4ab...8253 — No, $5,489 (96% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $5,380 (73% win rate)
- 0xc0ee...ec14 — No, $1,206 (51% win rate)
- 0x22db...190f — No, $1,200 (72% win rate)
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — No, $1,125 (87% win rate)
- 0x97a6...2190 — No, $1,078 (0% win rate)
- 0x797f...aa36 — No, $1,053 (48% win rate)
- 0x2120...2647 — No, $755 (100% win rate)
- 0x2c8f...ed9a — No, $557 (89% win rate)
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