Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,217.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is taking a Yes position as part of a broader $55.8k thesis across 8 related Iran-event markets.
- This bettor has won 59% of 177 resolved bets and is up $257k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 8 related markets with $55.8k in total exposure.
- Buying Yes at 15¢ suggests they see a low-probability diplomatic announcement as underpriced.
$2,576 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% record is reinforcing a broader Iran-event thesis across 8 related markets, buying No at 89¢.
- This bettor has won 69% of 443 resolved trades and is up $56.7K lifetime.
- They have put $49.7K across 8 related markets in this same event, suggesting a coordinated thesis.
- Buying No at 89¢ signals confidence that no qualifying U.S.-Iran agreement announcement happens by the deadline.
$1,105 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
90% winner cross-market whale
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved win rate and +$205k P&L is making a large No bet as part of a $322k cross-market Iran-event position.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $205k lifetime.
- They have positioned $322k across 5 related Iran markets, suggesting a clear broader thesis.
- This $34k No buy is larger than the market’s full 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.
$34,252 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Proven cross-market bettor
Proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is extending a $42.7k cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis by buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $41.3k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 6 related Iran markets with $42.7k total exposure.
- Buying No at 85¢ shows conviction that no qualifying U.S.-Iran announcement happens by the deadline.
$1,284 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Outcome 52970603, $2,500,000 (17% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 52970603, $30,661 (57% win rate)
- 0x557a...3d56 — Outcome 52970603, $27,312 (81% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 52970603, $25,000 (93% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 52970603, $20,082 (70% win rate)
- 0x54ce...9f80 — Outcome 52970603, $18,991 (88% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 52970603, $15,414 (70% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Outcome 52970603, $14,125 (50% win rate)
- 0x5666...c630 — Outcome 52970603, $9,000 (58% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 52970603, $7,660 (46% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal lands in May
Covers 10 related markets
Iran talks won’t happen
Covers 16 related markets
Iran deal unlikely soon
Covers 9 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 10 related markets
US-Iran meeting in June
Covers 6 related markets
No Iran deal by June
Covers 6 related markets
