Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by May 24. PolySpotter is tracking $4,233 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts showing notable sharp and profitable-trader movement toward No. The market resolves based on an official qualifying announcement before the deadline.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $124,139.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

84% winner buying Yes

Sharp 84% lifetime winner and serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on the Iran agreement/ceasefire market at 24¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456,848 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.77M across 120 related markets.
  • Selling No at 76¢ is the same as buying Yes at 24¢, near the current market price.

$1,741 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

86% serial cross-market bettor

Surfaced because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate re-entering No on a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,115 markets and is up $55K lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.16M flagged across 145 events.
  • They bought No at 73¢ and the market has already moved to 77¢, suggesting early confirmation.

$2,492 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

84% winner flips to No

Sharp political bettor with an 84% record and $456k lifetime profit is buying No after previously closing a Yes position, backed by a strong serial cross-market history.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 48 events with $1.77M traded and the same 84% win record.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No, suggesting a clear thesis shift.

$2,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp cluster buying No

Six wallets pushed $25.3k into No with a 19-point price move, including multiple highly profitable sharp bettors and a serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate.

  • Six wallets put $25.3k on No, moving the price up 19 points in a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
  • The flow includes a bettor up $677k with an 82% win record and another with an 86% win record across 1,115 resolved bets.
  • One wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 144 events with an 86% win record, adding weight to the coordinated No thesis.

$25,311 on No

New wallet flips Yes

A 15-hour-old wallet with early profits and repeated large-bet flags flipped from a large No position into Yes on a politically sensitive market.

  • This wallet is only 15 hours old but has already made 9 flagged large bets totaling $22.5K.
  • It closed a prior No position and bought Yes, signaling a clear reversal in view.
  • The wallet is up $1.1K so far across early resolved trades, though the track record is still young.

$4,770 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

New profitable wallet flips Yes

A 15-hour-old repeat large bettor with early profits flipped from No to a net Yes position, making this a worthwhile but higher-uncertainty new-wallet signal.

  • This 15-hour-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets and is up $1.1K on $17K invested.
  • It flipped from No to Yes within minutes, ending with a net Yes position around 51¢.
  • The signal is the wallet’s early repeat profitability, not market impact, since this is a liquid 50/50 market.

$7,311 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable 14-hour wallet

A 14-hour-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profit is putting about $5k behind No on a politically sensitive market.

  • This brand-new wallet is already up $1,274 after 7 positions.
  • It has now had $17.8k in large bets flagged, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
  • The bettor is backing No around 55–56¢ on a news-driven Iran market where an information edge is plausible.

$4,992 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

13-hour profitable new wallet

A 13-hour-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profit flipped from a closed No position into Yes on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.

  • This brand-new wallet has already placed 7 positions and is up $1,274 in its first day.
  • It has been flagged 5 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling $12,769 in tracked activity.
  • The bettor flipped from a large closed No position into Yes at 50¢, suggesting a fresh change in view.

$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable sharp flips to No

Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% historical win rate flipped from a prior Yes position into No and has a strong serial cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456K lifetime.
  • They are a proven cross-market trader with $1.75M across 48 events.
  • They previously held Yes here, closed it, and is now buying No at 56¢.

$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp trader flips to No

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate flipped from a closed Yes position into No on the Iran agreement market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456,848 lifetime.
  • They are a highly active cross-market trader, with 119 markets traded across 48 events.
  • They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 56¢, signaling a changed view.

$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe36f...cd91 Outcome 89894226, $58,678 (85% win rate)
  2. 0xc15b...38af Outcome 89894226, $30,000 (81% win rate)
  3. 0x1e1f...c855 Outcome 89894226, $19,936 (58% win rate)
  4. 0x1cc1...b8df Outcome 89894226, $17,704 (56% win rate)
  5. 0xaa4c...7bfd Outcome 89894226, $15,051 (74% win rate)
  6. 0xe162...8a81 Outcome 89894226, $9,518
  7. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 89894226, $9,247
  8. 0x5b20...486c Outcome 89894226, $5,000
  9. 0x80a0...5708 Outcome 89894226, $5,000 (39% win rate)
  10. 0xfe18...2c1b Outcome 89894226, $4,311 (67% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 3 related markets

Iran agreement comes early June

Covers 7 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran agreement lands May 27

Covers 6 related markets

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

309dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$124,139 tracked23 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,741 on Yes at 24¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,492 on No at 73¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,400 on No at 60¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$25,311 on No at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$4,770 on Yes at 51¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$7,311 on Yes at 51¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$4,992 on No at 56¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,700 on Yes at 50¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,120 on No at 56¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,120 on No at 56¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,000 on No at 50¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,314 on No at 45¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$7,843 on Yes at 44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$11,190 on Yes at 44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,937 on Yes at 43¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$3,622 on No at 58¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,500 on No at 58¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,380 on No at 54¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$4,549 on No at 35¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$28,133 on No at 35¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$1,040 on Yes at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,245 on No at 37¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

55d ago

$2,428 on No at 30¢

Related Theses