Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran agreement, ceasefire framework, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by May 24. PolySpotter is tracking $4,233 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts showing notable sharp and profitable-trader movement toward No. The market resolves based on an official qualifying announcement before the deadline.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $124,139.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
84% winner buying Yes
Sharp 84% lifetime winner and serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on the Iran agreement/ceasefire market at 24¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456,848 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.77M across 120 related markets.
- Selling No at 76¢ is the same as buying Yes at 24¢, near the current market price.
$1,741 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
86% serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate re-entering No on a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,115 markets and is up $55K lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.16M flagged across 145 events.
- They bought No at 73¢ and the market has already moved to 77¢, suggesting early confirmation.
$2,492 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
84% winner flips to No
Sharp political bettor with an 84% record and $456k lifetime profit is buying No after previously closing a Yes position, backed by a strong serial cross-market history.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 48 events with $1.77M traded and the same 84% win record.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No, suggesting a clear thesis shift.
$2,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp cluster buying No
Six wallets pushed $25.3k into No with a 19-point price move, including multiple highly profitable sharp bettors and a serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate.
- Six wallets put $25.3k on No, moving the price up 19 points in a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
- The flow includes a bettor up $677k with an 82% win record and another with an 86% win record across 1,115 resolved bets.
- One wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 144 events with an 86% win record, adding weight to the coordinated No thesis.
$25,311 on No
New wallet flips Yes
A 15-hour-old wallet with early profits and repeated large-bet flags flipped from a large No position into Yes on a politically sensitive market.
- This wallet is only 15 hours old but has already made 9 flagged large bets totaling $22.5K.
- It closed a prior No position and bought Yes, signaling a clear reversal in view.
- The wallet is up $1.1K so far across early resolved trades, though the track record is still young.
$4,770 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
New profitable wallet flips Yes
A 15-hour-old repeat large bettor with early profits flipped from No to a net Yes position, making this a worthwhile but higher-uncertainty new-wallet signal.
- This 15-hour-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets and is up $1.1K on $17K invested.
- It flipped from No to Yes within minutes, ending with a net Yes position around 51¢.
- The signal is the wallet’s early repeat profitability, not market impact, since this is a liquid 50/50 market.
$7,311 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable 14-hour wallet
A 14-hour-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profit is putting about $5k behind No on a politically sensitive market.
- This brand-new wallet is already up $1,274 after 7 positions.
- It has now had $17.8k in large bets flagged, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- The bettor is backing No around 55–56¢ on a news-driven Iran market where an information edge is plausible.
$4,992 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
13-hour profitable new wallet
A 13-hour-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profit flipped from a closed No position into Yes on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.
- This brand-new wallet has already placed 7 positions and is up $1,274 in its first day.
- It has been flagged 5 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling $12,769 in tracked activity.
- The bettor flipped from a large closed No position into Yes at 50¢, suggesting a fresh change in view.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable sharp flips to No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% historical win rate flipped from a prior Yes position into No and has a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456K lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader with $1.75M across 48 events.
- They previously held Yes here, closed it, and is now buying No at 56¢.
$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp trader flips to No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate flipped from a closed Yes position into No on the Iran agreement market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $456,848 lifetime.
- They are a highly active cross-market trader, with 119 markets traded across 48 events.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and is now buying No at 56¢, signaling a changed view.
$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xe36f...cd91 — Outcome 89894226, $58,678 (85% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — Outcome 89894226, $30,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 89894226, $19,936 (58% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 89894226, $17,704 (56% win rate)
- 0xaa4c...7bfd — Outcome 89894226, $15,051 (74% win rate)
- 0xe162...8a81 — Outcome 89894226, $9,518
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 89894226, $9,247
- 0x5b20...486c — Outcome 89894226, $5,000
- 0x80a0...5708 — Outcome 89894226, $5,000 (39% win rate)
- 0xfe18...2c1b — Outcome 89894226, $4,311 (67% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 3 related markets
Iran agreement comes early June
Covers 7 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran agreement lands May 27
Covers 6 related markets
