Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,783.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
90% winner, event-wide thesis
A proven high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across multiple related markets, and this trade adds another high-confidence No position at 90¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets
- They have been betting across 6 related US-Iran markets with $56.6k total size
- Buying No at 90¢ shows a high-confidence view that no official meeting happens by the deadline
$2,937 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner, event-wide thesis
A high-accuracy wallet with a 90% win rate is extending the same thesis across 4 related Iran diplomacy markets, and this trade aligns with that broader view.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets
- They have put $35.5k across 4 related markets in the same event
- Bought No at 89¢, backing the high-probability side as this market fell 8.5 points today
$1,931 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven 90% win-rate trader is making a consistent cross-market geopolitical bet, buying No at 90¢ in a market that just fell sharply.
- This bettor wins 90% of their trades across 175 resolved markets
- They have put $36.9k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a clear thesis
- Bought No at 90¢ after the market dropped 13.5% in a day, backing the current momentum
$3,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
85% winner, event thesis
An 85% win-rate wallet with nearly $395k in profit is building a broad cross-market geopolitical thesis, making this otherwise modest No buy worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They have put $18.5k across 6 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated geopolitical view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 78¢, a high-confidence price that fits this wallet’s history of winning on heavy favorites.
$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
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