Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,783.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
90% winner, event-wide thesis
A proven high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across multiple related markets, and this trade adds another high-confidence No position at 90¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets
- They have been betting across 6 related US-Iran markets with $56.6k total size
- Buying No at 90¢ shows a high-confidence view that no official meeting happens by the deadline
$2,937 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% winner, event-wide thesis
A high-accuracy wallet with a 90% win rate is extending the same thesis across 4 related Iran diplomacy markets, and this trade aligns with that broader view.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets
- They have put $35.5k across 4 related markets in the same event
- Bought No at 89¢, backing the high-probability side as this market fell 8.5 points today
$1,931 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
90% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven 90% win-rate trader is making a consistent cross-market geopolitical bet, buying No at 90¢ in a market that just fell sharply.
- This bettor wins 90% of their trades across 175 resolved markets
- They have put $36.9k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a clear thesis
- Bought No at 90¢ after the market dropped 13.5% in a day, backing the current momentum
$3,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
85% winner, event thesis
An 85% win-rate wallet with nearly $395k in profit is building a broad cross-market geopolitical thesis, making this otherwise modest No buy worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
- They have put $18.5k across 6 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated geopolitical view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 78¢, a high-confidence price that fits this wallet’s history of winning on heavy favorites.
$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 75496275, $70,000 (18% win rate)
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Outcome 75496275, $42,165 (33% win rate)
- 0xa510...1f80 — Outcome 75496275, $37,613
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 75496275, $31,522 (69% win rate)
- 0x1437...acfe — Outcome 75496275, $20,000
- 0x2d61...1fa7 — Outcome 75496275, $16,530 (76% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 75496275, $13,870 (59% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 75496275, $11,703 (82% win rate)
- 0x9f9e...4c57 — Outcome 75496275, $7,056 (80% win rate)
- 0x9fe6...2440 — Outcome 75496275, $4,878 (75% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran meeting before June
Covers 14 related markets
Iran deal unlikely soon
Covers 9 related markets
No US-Iran talks by June
Covers 9 related markets
Hormuz blockade lifts in late June
Covers 8 related markets
Oil stays in range
Covers 9 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal by May
Covers 10 related markets
Iran closes airspace late July
Covers 6 related markets
