Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,783.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

90% winner, event-wide thesis

A proven high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across multiple related markets, and this trade adds another high-confidence No position at 90¢.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 markets
  • They have been betting across 6 related US-Iran markets with $56.6k total size
  • Buying No at 90¢ shows a high-confidence view that no official meeting happens by the deadline

$2,937 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

90% winner, event-wide thesis

A high-accuracy wallet with a 90% win rate is extending the same thesis across 4 related Iran diplomacy markets, and this trade aligns with that broader view.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 175 bets
  • They have put $35.5k across 4 related markets in the same event
  • Bought No at 89¢, backing the high-probability side as this market fell 8.5 points today

$1,931 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

90% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven 90% win-rate trader is making a consistent cross-market geopolitical bet, buying No at 90¢ in a market that just fell sharply.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their trades across 175 resolved markets
  • They have put $36.9k across 4 related markets in the same event, showing a clear thesis
  • Bought No at 90¢ after the market dropped 13.5% in a day, backing the current momentum

$3,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

85% winner, event thesis

An 85% win-rate wallet with nearly $395k in profit is building a broad cross-market geopolitical thesis, making this otherwise modest No buy worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
  • They have put $18.5k across 6 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated geopolitical view rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 78¢, a high-confidence price that fits this wallet’s history of winning on heavy favorites.

$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5c90...79f4 Outcome 75496275, $42,165 (25% win rate)
  2. 0xa510...1f80 Outcome 75496275, $37,613
  3. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 75496275, $31,522 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x1437...acfe Outcome 75496275, $20,000
  5. 0x2d61...1fa7 Outcome 75496275, $16,530 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 75496275, $13,870 (57% win rate)
  7. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 75496275, $11,703 (75% win rate)
  8. 0x9fe6...2440 Outcome 75496275, $4,878 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x7e3c...0505 Outcome 75496275, $3,333
  10. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 75496275, $2,796 (80% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Calendar arbitrage on talks

Covers 16 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

US-Iran talks delayed past spring

Covers 10 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$9,783 tracked4 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

95d ago

$2,937 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

96d ago

$1,931 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

96d ago

$3,356 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

97d ago

$1,560 on No at 78¢

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 9 related markets
Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…Will Donald Trump announce tha…
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 16 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
US-Iran talks delayed past spring
Wallet_0x5969a trades 10 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Crude oil market arbitrage
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) …Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…