US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if an official, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place by the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial interactions do not count. Traders watch this market as a real-time gauge of odds for a diplomatic opening between Washington and Tehran.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,560.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

85% winner, event thesis

An 85% win-rate wallet with nearly $395k in profit is building a broad cross-market geopolitical thesis, making this otherwise modest No buy worth surfacing.

  • This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
  • They have put $18.5k across 6 related markets in the same event, pointing to a coordinated geopolitical view rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 78¢, a high-confidence price that fits this wallet’s history of winning on heavy favorites.

$1,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $7,535 (85% win rate)
  2. 0x8db5...fa3e No, $6,501 (64% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Yes, $6,350 (71% win rate)
  4. 0x12a2...0e71 No, $3,658 (50% win rate)
  5. 0xcf19...6402 Yes, $2,846 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x7494...680d Yes, $2,756 (93% win rate)
  7. 0x993c...6787 Yes, $2,000 (40% win rate)
  8. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $1,525 (71% win rate)
  9. 0x4b8a...f4a4 Yes, $1,275
  10. 0x48ee...008c Yes, $1,206 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

2d$1,560 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
27¢
No
73¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
83¢
76¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

2h ago

$1,560 on No at 78¢

78¢73¢5¢

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