Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic talks between representatives of the United States and Iran will begin by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $3,728 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with recent cross-market bettors buying NO.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,728.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting

Notable Trades

Cross-market bettors buying NO

Three experienced cross-market political bettors are aligning on No, with one strong 74% winner adding to an existing position as the market moves their way.

  • Three wallets are all betting No, putting $3.7K behind the same view as Yes has fallen 6 points today.
  • One bettor has won 74% of resolved bets and is already holding a larger No position on this market.
  • These wallets have traded many related event markets before, suggesting this is part of a broader Iran-talks thesis.

$3,728 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $14,590 (49% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $7,185 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,413 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x62cf...5826 Yes, $4,447 (64% win rate)
  5. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $3,455 (34% win rate)
  6. 0xa8c6...44e8 Yes, $3,200 (68% win rate)
  7. 0x30c1...9f91 No, $3,117 (54% win rate)
  8. 0xf807...c5dc No, $3,000 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x8597...daee No, $2,500 (80% win rate)
  10. 0xefce...4e4a No, $2,315 (50% win rate)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

43dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$3,728 tracked1 signalPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefiremeeting
Yes
44¢
No
56¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
59¢
54¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

2d ago

$3,728 on No at 52¢

52¢56¢4¢