Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $29,134.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting

Notable Trades

94% winner adding to No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to a No position while part of a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 265 resolved trades and earned $191,055 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding $1,718 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
  • Nineteen wallets share the same funder, while No is priced near 58¢ despite recent upward momentum in the market.

$5,302 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

94% winner adding to No

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is adding to a No position while part of a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 265 resolved trades and earned $191,055 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding $1,718 to an existing No position, signaling increased conviction rather than routine entry.
  • Nineteen wallets share the same funder, while No is priced near 58¢ despite recent upward momentum in the market.

$1,718 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Serial cross-market winner adding to Yes

A serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 59% amid strong upward market momentum.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 32 resolved trades and earned $32,765 in realized profit.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position at 59%, signaling continued conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes has risen 17.5% in one day as follow-on U.S.-Iran talks appear increasingly plausible.

$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into No

A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable No position, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate win rate.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $6,275 to the market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • This bettor added $3,250 to an existing $5,000 No position at 65¢, while No has risen to 68%.
  • The wallet has a 69% win rate across 91 resolved bets and trades across 30 events, providing useful but not exceptional supporting history.

$3,329 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 328 resolved bets and a documented edge is buying Yes alongside positions in two related markets.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 328 resolved trades and earned about $690,000 in profit.
  • They are positioning across three markets in the same US-Iran event, with $26,582 committed and 78 events traded historically.
  • The $1,038 Yes purchase at 42¢ follows a 7.5-point one-day rise while Yes remains below 50%.

$1,475 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Linked wallets back Yes conviction

Three wallets deployed nearly $5.9K toward Yes, including two linked wallets and a highly successful bettor, while the market has already risen 11.5% in a day.

  • Three wallets bought Yes for $5,894, including two funded by the same source.
  • A bettor with an 87% win rate bought $1,659 of Yes at 46¢.
  • The market rose 11.5% in one day, while another trader closed a No position—supporting the bullish direction.

$5,894 on Yes

Profitable serial event trader

A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 328 resolved bets and a documented edge is buying Yes alongside positions in two related markets.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 328 resolved trades and earned about $690,000 in profit.
  • They are positioning across three markets in the same US-Iran event, with $26,582 committed and 78 events traded historically.
  • The $1,038 Yes purchase at 42¢ follows a 7.5-point one-day rise while Yes remains below 50%.

$1,038 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp serial trader buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with 1,427 resolved positions and an exceptional edge bought Yes at 36¢ in a plausible diplomatic-timeline market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 1,427 resolved positions and is up $754,059.
  • The trader typically buys around 40¢ but entered Yes at just 36¢, implying strong confidence in another formal U.S.-Iran round by August 31.
  • The market has meaningful volume and liquidity, while Yes has recently fallen 6% over a week, making this a notable contrarian position.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into No

A six-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable No position, creating a meaningful coordinated directional signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate win rate.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $6,275 to the market, signaling coordinated conviction on No.
  • This bettor added $3,250 to an existing $5,000 No position at 65¢, while No has risen to 68%.
  • The wallet has a 69% win rate across 91 resolved bets and trades across 30 events, providing useful but not exceptional supporting history.

$3,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Cross-market bettors buying NO

Three experienced cross-market political bettors are aligning on No, with one strong 74% winner adding to an existing position as the market moves their way.

  • Three wallets are all betting No, putting $3.7K behind the same view as Yes has fallen 6 points today.
  • One bettor has won 74% of resolved bets and is already holding a larger No position on this market.
  • These wallets have traded many related event markets before, suggesting this is part of a broader Iran-talks thesis.

$3,728 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 12185556, $22,115 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x9ad0...bf3d Outcome 12185556, $11,931 (66% win rate)
  3. 0xff80...9b4d Outcome 12185556, $7,501 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x8b72...6dbe Outcome 12185556, $7,478 (50% win rate)
  5. 0x2132...7657 Outcome 12185556, $6,974
  6. 0xeb77...4e6b Outcome 12185556, $6,872 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 12185556, $4,562 (94% win rate)
  8. 0x33fa...169d Outcome 12185556, $4,327 (33% win rate)
  9. 0xe533...ab29 Outcome 12185556, $3,000
  10. 0x4178...fbcb Outcome 12185556, $2,432

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Calendar arbitrage on talks

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

ResolvedNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$29,134 tracked10 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefiremeeting

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
102¢
98¢
94¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

26d ago

$5,302 on No at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

34d ago

$1,718 on No at 58¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

37d ago

$1,400 on Yes at 59¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

41d ago

$3,329 on No at 65¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

45d ago

$1,475 on Yes at 42¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

46d ago

$5,894 on Yes at 54¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

48d ago

$1,038 on Yes at 42¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

49d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 36¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

49d ago

$3,250 on No at 65¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

56d ago

$3,728 on No at 52¢

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