Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It currently has $1,085 in tracked smart-money activity and one reported signal: a seven-wallet funded Yes cluster.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,085.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster
A seven-wallet funded cluster is accumulating Yes at 45¢, providing a meaningful coordinated-flow signal despite the lead wallet's only moderate track record.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have collectively backed Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- The trade buys Yes at 45¢ while the market is near-even at 46%, leaving substantial upside if a meeting occurs.
- The lead wallet is profitable overall (+$20,794), though its 60% win rate is not independently elite.
$1,085 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Top Holders
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $8,333 (48% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — Yes, $7,195 (80% win rate)
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Yes, $3,200 (66% win rate)
- 0xe096...be8e — Yes, $3,030 (60% win rate)
- 0xe958...66b7 — No, $3,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x80a4...22cc — No, $2,750 (60% win rate)
- 0x993c...6787 — Yes, $2,000 (40% win rate)
- 0x5464...af99 — Yes, $1,961 (45% win rate)
- 0x9f66...3a50 — No, $1,665 (73% win rate)
- 0xa344...8141 — Yes, $1,500
