Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives will begin by July 17, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live prediction market odds along with $1,433 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal tied to this market.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,433.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

8-wallet funded cluster

Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.

  • This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
  • They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
  • The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.

$1,433 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

8-wallet funded cluster

Surface: despite this wallet’s negative lifetime P&L, the trade is backed by a large recurring linked-wallet cluster on a geopolitically sensitive market that just moved sharply toward Yes.

  • This wallet is part of an 8-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior alerts.
  • They bought $3,000 of Yes at 87¢ after the market surged 51 points in a day.
  • The bet was large for the market at the time, nearly matching the prior 24h volume.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $2,172
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b No, $2,100 (79% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d No, $2,040 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x0099...386e Yes, $2,031 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $1,612 (49% win rate)
  6. 0x0bfb...26a7 Yes, $1,332
  7. 0x5a21...9318 No, $1,000 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x4934...5951 Yes, $963
  9. 0x7495...7fcf No, $886
  10. 0x1308...45c6 No, $740

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

16dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$4,433 tracked2 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
38¢
No
63¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
71¢
45¢
19¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

2d ago

$1,433 on Yes at 87¢

87¢38¢49¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

2d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 87¢

87¢38¢49¢

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