Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,628.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster buying NO
A coordinated NO push is worth surfacing because a 93% historical winner is adding to an existing position while the market has moved sharply toward NO.
- A bettor who wins 93% of resolved bets added nearly $4K more to NO and is already holding a larger NO position.
- Three wallets put about $10K on the same side, equal to roughly 20% of the market’s 24h volume.
- The market has already moved strongly toward NO, with Yes down 8.5 points today and 27.5 points this week.
$10,107 on No
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader made a fresh Yes buy on a plausible diplomacy catalyst, large relative to the market’s prior activity and already followed by a price move.
- This bettor has traded 57 related event markets and is up $42K across a large history.
- Their $3.3K Yes buy was nearly 3x the market’s prior 24h volume flagged by the alert.
- Yes has already moved from their 77¢ entry to about 81¢, matching the direction of the bet.
$1,148 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$2,126 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$3,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$2,375 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$1,178 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
93% sharp linked wallet
Strong track-record wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is adding to a No position, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster and market momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $94.7K lifetime.
- They are adding to a No position at 69¢ as Yes has fallen 43 points over the past week.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster with $43.7K in tracked activity.
$1,045 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$7,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial cross-market winner
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win record is buying No on a plausible geopolitical market with recent odds moving their way.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $855K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 69 events and 191 markets.
- Buying No at 38¢ follows recent market momentum, with Yes down about 10 points over the past day.
$1,111 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 95676548, $9,058 (76% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 95676548, $6,201 (52% win rate)
- 0xeb77...4e6b — Outcome 95676548, $5,867 (44% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 95676548, $5,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xf44d...60af — Outcome 95676548, $3,139 (54% win rate)
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 95676548, $3,103 (50% win rate)
- 0x9360...03e6 — Outcome 95676548, $3,000 (46% win rate)
- 0x3c0c...fbb7 — Outcome 95676548, $2,680 (69% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Outcome 95676548, $2,281 (49% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 95676548, $2,000 (49% win rate)
Related Theses
World Cup favorites prevail
Covers 4 related markets
Hormuz blockade persists
Covers 9 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iranian blockade persists through August
Covers 7 related markets
Calendar arbitrage on talks
Covers 16 related markets
