Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the next formal senior-level round of diplomatic or peace talks between U.S. and Iranian representatives begins by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter monitors live Polymarket odds and smart-money activity, including $3,278 tracked from 1 signal so far, as traders assess the chances of follow-on talks after the Switzerland roadmap discussions.

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,278.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader made a fresh Yes buy on a plausible diplomacy catalyst, large relative to the market’s prior activity and already followed by a price move.

  • This bettor has traded 57 related event markets and is up $42K across a large history.
  • Their $3.3K Yes buy was nearly 3x the market’s prior 24h volume flagged by the alert.
  • Yes has already moved from their 77¢ entry to about 81¢, matching the direction of the bet.

$3,278 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd426...334a No, $9,029 (43% win rate)
  2. 0x9592...a7b8 No, $7,481 (93% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d No, $6,756 (56% win rate)
  4. 0x5464...af99 No, $6,522 (45% win rate)
  5. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $4,646 (47% win rate)
  6. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $4,510 (58% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d No, $4,137 (69% win rate)
  8. 0x4478...02a4 No, $4,000 (58% win rate)
  9. 0xb51b...b4d9 Yes, $3,836 (61% win rate)
  10. 0x801d...d8e0 Yes, $3,809 (72% win rate)

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

30dNext round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$3,278 tracked1 signalPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
62¢
No
39¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
87¢
73¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

7d ago

$3,278 on Yes at 77¢

77¢62¢15¢

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