Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,004.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe738...df65 No, $5,857 (64% win rate)
  2. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $3,393 (88% win rate)
  3. 0x9592...a7b8 Yes, $3,027 (93% win rate)
  4. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $3,019 (77% win rate)
  5. 0xc040...beac Yes, $615 (44% win rate)
  6. 0x0652...9134 Yes, $500 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $492
  8. 0x2cc7...2385 Yes, $364
  9. 0x8c57...f939 No, $363 (74% win rate)
  10. 0x75ac...33d7 Yes, $300

Related Theses

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

No US-Iran talks by June

Covers 15 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal arrives in June

Covers 3 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

3dUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$1,004 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
12¢
No
89¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
90¢
72¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

1h ago

$1,004 on No at 87¢

87¢89¢2¢

Related Theses