Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,975.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Deadline Yes buyers

High-composite US-Iran diplomacy alert with three wallets moving Yes-equivalent near deadline, including a brand-new repeat bettor and cross-market positioning, though much of the size is No-selling that may be profit-taking.

  • Three wallets put nearly $9k into the Yes side as the market nears its deadline.
  • One brand-new wallet is already on its fourth flagged position within 7 hours.
  • Two wallets have been active across 8–9 related markets, including one up $121k lifetime.

$8,958 on Yes

Fresh wallet geopolitical bet

Very new wallet has placed nearly $10k across four flagged positions, including a $6.2k Yes bet across related US-Iran markets despite no resolved track record yet.

  • A 7-hour-old wallet has already put nearly $10k into flagged positions, suggesting strong fresh conviction.
  • This is a real geopolitical market where informed positioning is plausible, not a meme or trivial market.
  • The wallet is also active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

$6,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$2,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Proven geopolitical thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
  • They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.

$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Related Theses

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal unlikely soon

Covers 9 related markets

Iran blockade timing remains uncertain

Covers 7 related markets

Iran talks won’t happen

Covers 16 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 10 related markets

Hormuz blockade stays in place

Covers 8 related markets

Iran talks delayed until early 2027

Covers 6 related markets

Trump unfreezes assets only

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran oil relief won’t return

Covers 1 related market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$21,975 tracked6 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-17 15:31 UTC

$8,958 on Yes at 18¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-17 15:23 UTC

$6,160 on Yes at 35¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-16 13:43 UTC

$2,168 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-16 09:52 UTC

$1,271 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-15 04:01 UTC

$2,413 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

2026-06-14 08:39 UTC

$1,004 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

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Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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Iran blockade timing remains uncertain
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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Iran talks delayed until early 2027
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Trump unfreezes assets only
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Iran oil relief won’t return
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