Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,975.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Deadline Yes buyers
High-composite US-Iran diplomacy alert with three wallets moving Yes-equivalent near deadline, including a brand-new repeat bettor and cross-market positioning, though much of the size is No-selling that may be profit-taking.
- Three wallets put nearly $9k into the Yes side as the market nears its deadline.
- One brand-new wallet is already on its fourth flagged position within 7 hours.
- Two wallets have been active across 8–9 related markets, including one up $121k lifetime.
$8,958 on Yes
Fresh wallet geopolitical bet
Very new wallet has placed nearly $10k across four flagged positions, including a $6.2k Yes bet across related US-Iran markets despite no resolved track record yet.
- A 7-hour-old wallet has already put nearly $10k into flagged positions, suggesting strong fresh conviction.
- This is a real geopolitical market where informed positioning is plausible, not a meme or trivial market.
- The wallet is also active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
$6,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$2,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$1,271 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$2,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Proven geopolitical thesis bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate is extending a large 15-market geopolitical thesis by buying No on a US-Iran meeting.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $34.6K lifetime.
- They have placed $127K across 15 related markets, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 87¢ means they are backing the meeting not happening despite recent market movement.
$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 18257277, $15,776 (76% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 18257277, $15,240 (60% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 18257277, $9,851 (52% win rate)
- 0xf2e7...843e — Outcome 18257277, $2,400
- 0x62da...326d — Outcome 18257277, $1,876
- 0xa53e...93e6 — Outcome 18257277, $1,532
- 0x453a...81d2 — Outcome 18257277, $1,500 (0% win rate)
- 0xea60...83f5 — Outcome 18257277, $1,500
- 0x2d01...9725 — Outcome 18257277, $1,137
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 18257277, $1,005 (49% win rate)
Related Theses
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Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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Iran talks come later in 2026
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Hormuz blockade stays in place
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US announces Iran blockade
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