Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,430.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
Wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets with $92k total exposure, making this small Yes re-entry worth tracking despite only modest historical win rate.
- This bettor has placed $92k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $43k across 403 resolved bets, though its win rate is only 51%.
$1,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Cross-market Iran bettor
A large, slightly profitable political trader is taking a broader cross-market US-Iran thesis, buying No across this market as part of $55.9k in related positioning.
- This wallet has put $55.9k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is slightly profitable over a large history, up $43.7k across $8.2M invested.
- This $4.3k No buy is meaningful in a smaller market with only $17.5k total volume.
$4,301 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
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