Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,430.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Cross-market diplomacy bettor
Wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets with $92k total exposure, making this small Yes re-entry worth tracking despite only modest historical win rate.
- This bettor has placed $92k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $43k across 403 resolved bets, though its win rate is only 51%.
$1,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Cross-market Iran bettor
A large, slightly profitable political trader is taking a broader cross-market US-Iran thesis, buying No across this market as part of $55.9k in related positioning.
- This wallet has put $55.9k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor is slightly profitable over a large history, up $43.7k across $8.2M invested.
- This $4.3k No buy is meaningful in a smaller market with only $17.5k total volume.
$4,301 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10799143, $26,250 (69% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10799143, $12,109 (79% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 10799143, $3,637 (46% win rate)
- 0x790c...5f9c — Outcome 10799143, $3,100
- 0x5ee7...8a46 — Outcome 10799143, $1,800
- 0x7aad...c255 — Outcome 10799143, $1,600
- 0x001d...b7a5 — Outcome 10799143, $1,500
- 0xe44d...b30d — Outcome 10799143, $1,500
- 0x9ddf...2c83 — Outcome 10799143, $1,000 (22% win rate)
- 0x2552...fe6c — Outcome 10799143, $1,000
Related Theses
Iran peace deal in August
Covers 10 related markets
Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June
Covers 7 related markets
Iran deal timing arbitrage
Covers 17 related markets
Starmer exits in late May
Covers 9 related markets
US-Iran meeting late June
Covers 9 related markets
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
Covers 3 related markets
Iran airspace stays open
Covers 12 related markets
Israel closes airspace late June
Covers 9 related markets
Iran won't surrender uranium
Covers 3 related markets
Germany-Côte d'Ivoire match canceled
Covers 3 related markets
