Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,430.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Cross-market diplomacy bettor

Wallet is expressing a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis across 5 related markets with $92k total exposure, making this small Yes re-entry worth tracking despite only modest historical win rate.

  • This bettor has placed $92k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader diplomacy thesis.
  • Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
  • The wallet is profitable overall, up $43k across 403 resolved bets, though its win rate is only 51%.

$1,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Cross-market Iran bettor

A large, slightly profitable political trader is taking a broader cross-market US-Iran thesis, buying No across this market as part of $55.9k in related positioning.

  • This wallet has put $55.9k across 5 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • The bettor is slightly profitable over a large history, up $43.7k across $8.2M invested.
  • This $4.3k No buy is meaningful in a smaller market with only $17.5k total volume.

$4,301 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 10799143, $26,250 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 10799143, $12,109 (79% win rate)
  3. 0xd426...334a Outcome 10799143, $3,637 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x790c...5f9c Outcome 10799143, $3,100
  5. 0x5ee7...8a46 Outcome 10799143, $1,800
  6. 0x7aad...c255 Outcome 10799143, $1,600
  7. 0x001d...b7a5 Outcome 10799143, $1,500
  8. 0xe44d...b30d Outcome 10799143, $1,500
  9. 0x9ddf...2c83 Outcome 10799143, $1,000 (22% win rate)
  10. 0x2552...fe6c Outcome 10799143, $1,000

Related Theses

Iran peace deal in August

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Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June

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Iran deal timing arbitrage

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Starmer exits in late May

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US-Iran meeting late June

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MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June

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Iran airspace stays open

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Israel closes airspace late June

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Iran won't surrender uranium

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Germany-Côte d'Ivoire match canceled

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$5,430 tracked2 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

51d ago

$1,129 on Yes at 21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?

52d ago

$4,301 on No at 70¢

Related Theses

Iran peace deal in August
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Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June
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Iran deal timing arbitrage
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US-Iran meeting late June
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MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
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MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoi…MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoi…MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoi…
Iran airspace stays open
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Israel closes airspace late June
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Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …
Iran won't surrender uranium
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Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…Iran agrees to surrender enric…
Germany-Côte d'Ivoire match canceled
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