Cross-Market Thesis

“Iran deal timing arbitrage”

This trader is expressing a view that US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14, US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?, US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?, and 14 more are correlated outcomes, committing $28,450 to this thesis across 17 prediction markets on Polymarket.

W
Wallet_0x8a98154% win rate

Total

$28,450

Markets

17

Positions

  1. 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
    $1,491 @ 80¢
  2. 2US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
    $2,709 @ 81¢
  3. 3US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
    $1,332 @ 77¢
  4. 4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
    $1,517 @ 75¢
  5. 5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
    $1,760 @ 88¢
  6. 6US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
    $1,733 @ 88¢
  7. 7US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
    $1,420 @ 77¢
  8. 8US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
    $1,503 @ 73¢
  9. 9US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
    $3,240 @ 81¢
  10. 10US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
    $2,705 @ 81¢
  11. 11US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
    $1,649 @ 74¢
  12. 12US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
    $1,254 @ 56¢
  13. 13US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
    $1,096 @ 39¢
  14. 14US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
    $1,072 @ 67¢
  15. 15US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
    $1,321 @ 87¢
  16. 16US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?
    $1,321 @ 62¢
  17. 17US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
    $1,327 @ 79¢
Iran deal timing arbitrage — Cross-Market Analysis | PolySpotter