Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,043.

Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire, meeting, meet, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader flips to No

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader with a 76% win rate made a fresh $6,480 bet on No at 81¢ after closing an earlier Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 356 resolved trades and earned nearly $945,000 in profit.
  • They placed a fresh $6,480 bet on No at 81¢, despite previously holding and closing a Yes position.
  • The trader has positioned across 236 markets and 85 events, indicating a broad, repeatable trading record.

$3,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial trader flips to No

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader with a 76% win rate made a fresh $6,480 bet on No at 81¢ after closing an earlier Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 356 resolved trades and earned nearly $945,000 in profit.
  • They placed a fresh $6,480 bet on No at 81¢, despite previously holding and closing a Yes position.
  • The trader has positioned across 236 markets and 85 events, indicating a broad, repeatable trading record.

$6,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven serial trader backs No

A highly experienced, profitable trader with an 82% win rate is taking a fresh bearish position against Yes in a diplomatic-talks market.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,540 resolved positions and is up $809,467 lifetime.
  • The trader is selling Yes at 24¢, equivalent to buying No at 76¢, despite recent upward movement in Yes.
  • Their activity spans 55 events and 70 markets, indicating a repeatable cross-market trading record rather than a one-off bet.

$1,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Four-wallet Yes conviction cluster

Four wallets repeatedly positioned for Yes with nearly $10,000 of fresh or added exposure, supported by profitable long-term trading histories and prior cross-market activity.

  • Four wallets aligned on Yes with $9,837 committed, including three direct buys around 52–53¢ and a No sale equivalent to buying Yes at 51¢.
  • Two of the largest participants are profitable over hundreds of resolved markets, including one up $457,333 lifetime with a 61% win rate.
  • The group is adding to or reopening Yes exposure after a 27% weekly price decline, suggesting conviction despite the market’s recent drop.

$9,837 on Yes

Three-wallet bearish add-on

Three wallets added $4,925 to No while the market fell 14.5% in one day, indicating coordinated bearish conviction despite mixed track records.

  • Three wallets bought No within six seconds, committing $4,925 in coordinated flow.
  • The market has fallen 14.5% in 24 hours and 22% over a week, reinforcing the bearish positioning.
  • One wallet is up $457,194 lifetime across 991 resolved bets, though the other two have mixed or negative records.

$4,925 on No

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade persists

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Calendar arbitrage on talks

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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Someone else wins Peru presidency

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Crude oil market arbitrage

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?$26,043 tracked5 signalsPoliticsU.S. x IranTrumpVanceGeopoliticsIranPeace DealUS-IranIran CeasefiremeetingmeetDiplomatic meeting
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

2026-09-01 21:16 UTC

$3,560 on No at 81¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-27 16:13 UTC

$6,480 on No at 81¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-26 14:37 UTC

$1,241 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-12 11:00 UTC

$9,837 on Yes at 52¢

52¢→100¢↑48¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

2026-08-10 06:18 UTC

$4,925 on No at 49¢

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Hormuz blockade persists
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Calendar arbitrage on talks
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Someone else wins Peru presidency
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