Part of: Who will meet with Iran by April 30?
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,548.
Categories: Politics, Kushner, Vance, Witkoff, rubio, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Diplomatic meeting
Notable Trades
88% winner flips to Yes
A proven high-win-rate trader with a broad cross-market track record flipped from No to Yes on this geopolitical market, suggesting a meaningful thesis change worth watching.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $414k across 179 settled bets
- They trade across 52 markets in 27 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit
- They opened a fresh Yes position at 82¢ after previously closing a No bet, signaling a clear change in view on this market
$1,548 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 52088261, $11,096 (79% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Outcome 52088261, $8,821 (69% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 52088261, $2,109 (80% win rate)
- 0x9bae...5d34 — Outcome 52088261, $1,870 (69% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 52088261, $1,475
- 0x69f4...e01a — Outcome 52088261, $1,005
- 0x0a6d...1d0a — Outcome 52088261, $964
- 0xdcdd...73a5 — Outcome 52088261, $690 (69% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 52088261, $472 (58% win rate)
- 0x63e3...f341 — Outcome 52088261, $234 (63% win rate)
Related Theses
Calendar arbitrage on talks
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Hormuz blockade persists
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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Iran surrenders uranium in May
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