Part of: Who will meet with Iran by April 30?

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,548.

Categories: Politics, Kushner, Vance, Witkoff, rubio, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Diplomatic meeting

Notable Trades

88% winner flips to Yes

A proven high-win-rate trader with a broad cross-market track record flipped from No to Yes on this geopolitical market, suggesting a meaningful thesis change worth watching.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $414k across 179 settled bets
  • They trade across 52 markets in 27 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit
  • They opened a fresh Yes position at 82¢ after previously closing a No bet, signaling a clear change in view on this market

$1,548 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 52088261, $11,096 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xbb8e...b243 Outcome 52088261, $8,821 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x134a...9e42 Outcome 52088261, $4,123 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 52088261, $2,109 (81% win rate)
  5. 0x9bae...5d34 Outcome 52088261, $1,870 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x364d...9f8f Outcome 52088261, $1,533 (83% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 52088261, $1,475
  8. 0x69f4...e01a Outcome 52088261, $1,005
  9. 0x0a6d...1d0a Outcome 52088261, $964
  10. 0xdcdd...73a5 Outcome 52088261, $690 (66% win rate)

Related Theses

No Iran deal soon

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No US-Iran meeting by June

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Iran peace deal unlikely

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran closes airspace in June

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Blockade stays through June

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Iran ceasefire date arbitrage

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Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

ResolvedWho will meet with Iran by April 30?$1,548 tracked1 signalPoliticsKushnerVanceWitkoffrubioGeopoliticsIranIran CeasefireTrumpU.S. x IranDiplomatic meeting

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

45d ago

$1,548 on Yes at 82¢

Related Theses

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Iran peace deal unlikely
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